InsiderAdvantage/Fox5/Morris News “SuperPoll” Shows Crowded Race and Tepid Voter Interest in GOP Senate Contest; Deal Cruising Towards Re-nomination
The latest InsiderAdvantage survey conducted for Fox5 Atlanta and the Morris News Service shows that the race for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate is a tight battle, but one potentially attracting little focus, with early voting just over a week away. The survey was conducted with our research partner OpinionSavvy (www.opinionsavvy.com ). Crosstabs are available at the bottom of the page.
The survey of 804 likely voters in the Republican primary was conducted April 13-15 by combined telephone and online surveys, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4%. The survey asked voters if the election were held today, for whom they would vote. The results are:
David Perdue: 19%
Jack Kingston: 15%
Karen Handel: 13%
Paul Broun: 11%
Phil Gingrey: 9%
Other: 1%
Undecided: 32%
In the race for the GOP nomination for Governor of Georgia, incumbent Nathan Deal has an overwhelming lead over his two opponents. The results are:
Nathan Deal: 61%
David Pennington: 7%
John Barge: 4%
Undecided: 28%
InsiderAdvantage/Fox5 Political Analyst Matt Towery: “The Senate race remains virtually the same, with David Perdue leading the pack and Jack Kingston in second place.
“Of note is the movement of Karen Handel to a solid third place. Handel shows the most momentum at the moment. Kingston has solidified second place with his more recent ‘Obamacare’ ad featuring images of Barack Obama engaged in a leaving a faux voicemail for Kingston. But his first round of ads featuring an old station wagon clearly hurt him with female voters, who tend to dominate the metro-Atlanta electorate.
“Perdue leads among women in the poll. Handel, who has always polled less favorably with female voters, is facing the same predicament in this race. More of her support comes from male voters once again,” said Towery.
“Paul Broun seems stuck at the same level as in recent polls, and both he and Phil Gingrey show little evidence of momentum.
“The most notable number in the poll is the solid 32% who are still undecided. From years of experience, I can usually get a feel for likely voter turnout based on the percentage of undecided voters in a poll prior to early voting. While any good news-quality poll will have a bigger undecided percentage than a partisan poll or consultants’ polling, this number is higher than usual. Voters are not focusing on this race, or any others, and that is in part due to the non-competitive gubernatorial primary,” Towery said.
“If voter turnout continues to appear ‘uninspired,’ the race could be a matter of just a few points separating the first- and second-place Senate candidates who make the runoff from those who miss ‘the big dance’ by just a few points.
“Finally, of note, both the full telephone and online surveys mirrored one another in the positioning of the candidates and reflected the same percentages within the two surveys’ margins of error.
Methodology and Additional Analysis for IAG Subscribers Only
Note: to read more about methodology and the value on online and telephone surveys visit www.opinionsavvy.com
| Target Population | Likely Republican voters in Georgia |
| Sampling Method | This poll is mixed-mode, using both telephone and online sampling techniques. Respondents were randomly selected from voter registration records for a telephone poll. Simultaneously, online respondents were targeted randomly for an identical poll. |
| Integration & Weighting | Over multiple iterations (preserving original ratios), the online and telephone polls were integrated and subsequently re-sampled randomly. The poll was weighted for age, gender, and political affiliation. |
| Number of Respondents | 804 |
| Margin of Error | ±3.4% |
| More Analysis from Matt Towery for IA Subscribers Only:This race is tricky because the two candidates who have spent the most money on television ads have seen little movement in the polls. They have solidified their leads, but not added to them. The greatest threats to the leaders are Handel and Gingrey. Handel is able to produce momentum out of thin air while Gingrey is sitting on a pile of cash that he has yet to spend. As I predicted months ago, Broun remains stuck at about the same percentage of those who identify themselves as “tea Party” voters in Georgia, which is less than 15%. Kingston is back on air with another of his folksy ads built around his old station wagon. This might be a fatal mistake in that our research shows that these “down home” ads are costing him votes in metro-Atlanta, particularly among women. At the moment Perdue would appear a lock for a runoff position. But if Handel receives an infusion of cash or Gingrey runs better ads more often, Kingston could find himself holding on for dear life by primary election day,
As for Deal, that race is over. Pennington and Barge have run pathetically weak campaigns and Deal may well reach nearly 80% of the vote on primary election day. But the “two stooges” have provided Deal an excuse to run ads heavily to build up his favorable before taking on Democrat Jason Carter in November. So Pennington and Barge have proved to be the perfect dupes for building a strong early base for Deal. Possible game changers in the weeks ahead include:
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Crosstabs can be found below:
