Perdue Holds Lead; Handel Gains Momentum, Tied with Kingston for Second
The final InsiderAdvantage survey of the Republican race for Senate was conducted by telephone the evening of May 18. The survey of 852 registered likely voters was weighted for age, race, and gender and has a margin of error of 3.3%. (More at www.insideradvantage.com ) Crosstabs at the bottom of the page.
The results were:
David Perdue: 26%
Karen Handel: 17%
Jack Kingston: 17%
Phil Gingrey: 11%
Paul Broun: 10%
Other: 1%
Undecided: 18%
InsiderAdvantage CEO/Fox 5 Political Analyst Matt Towery:
“Every major candidate other than Handel and Gingrey lost a bit of their support from where they were in our poll of last week. Handel held her numbers, suggesting that she either has momentum going into the vote or is at least managing to hold on to her support levels. The undecided vote increased as Kingston lost more than two points and Perdue slid by one. It appears Phil Gingrey might have picked up some of their support and could be rising towards at least a strong fourth place finish or even nudging for third. But Perdue continues to look strong enough to finish in first place.
“The real issue is that of Handel and Kingston as they battle for a second place position. Handel launched broadcast television ads on TV in metro-Atlanta and that, along with her strong digital and automated phone call campaign might be accounting for not only her strength in holding her vote, but the movement of more voters to the undecided column. Typically when we see the undecided total spike right before an election, it means that some voters are abandoning their earlier choice and are either thinking about switching horses or are considering not voting. My guess is this is a little of both. And given that most candidates gave up ground, the two most likely recipients of those votes would be Handel and Gingrey.
“Remembering that a good number of votes are already in, Handel’s performance will have to be strong to make up lost ground. But the polling suggest she might do that. We will be watching the vote-rich area of North Fulton, as it will likely report late Tuesday night and may decide whether Kingston or Handel wins the second place spot. I expect the earliest numbers to be reported on Tuesday to favor Perdue and Kingston. It’s as we inch towards Fulton that the race for second place may tighten.”
Conducted with our partner OpinionSavvy www.opinionsavvy.com.
