Jason Carter received a shot of good news last week, when the Sabato Crystal Ball web site upgraded the Democratic gubernatorial candidate’s chances of making a runoff against GOP incumbent Nathan Deal.
In an Oct. 23 report, writers Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley shifted their rating of the Carter-Deal race from “leans Republican” to “toss-up/leans runoff.” The web site is produced by Larry J. Sabato’s Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
The site issued the same upgrade Oct. 16 for the U.S. Senate race between Democrat Michelle Nunn and Republican David Perdue.
“The race for governor in the Peach State appears to be on a similar trajectory” as the Senate race, Kondik and Skelley wrote. They said that Libertarian Andrew Hunt “may well win enough of the vote” to force the governor’s race into a runoff.
The web site found that in both the Senate and governor’s races “it’s easier to see the Republican winning the runoff that the Democrat.”
Kondik and Skelley also noted Georgia’s “bizarre scheduling” of runoffs. The governor’s runoff would be held Dec. 2, while the Senate second round would not arrive until Jan. 6, thanks to a federal court ruling.
The Crystal Ball in its Oct. 23 report also cited Georgia sources who surmised that Nunn might now have a better chance than Perdue of winning outright on election day.
A total of 36 states are holding governor’s elections this year. Including the shift in the Deal-Carter race, the Crystal Ball rates seven of those as tossups.
Noting that the GOP now holds 29 of 50 governorships, the Sabato site gives a range of projections from a GOP gain of one seat to a Democratic gain of two.
More national love for Nunn: Another noted poll-meister, Nate Silver of the FiveThirtyEight web site, last week gave Michelle Nunn a 40 percent chance of winning the election, if it goes to a runoff, and about a 20 percent chance of a Nov. 4 victory.
The former New York Times analyst’s projections showed that 57 percent of the time, a 50-50 Republican-Democratic split in the Senate would depend upon a Nunn victory. The Democrats would still control the chamber because Vice President Joe Biden would cast the deciding vote.
Silver concluded that Georgia has the best chance of “being a tipping-point state that would determine majority control.” He said that Nunn has better hopes of winning than do Democratic incumbents in Colorado, Louisiana, Alaska and Arkansas. She also also stands a better chance than Democratic candidates in South Dakota, West Virginia and Montana, where Democratic incumbents are retiring. With 36 seats up this year, the Republicans must gain at least six to take control.
Silver, noting that Nunn’s runoff chances are “somewhat unfavorable,” made some interesting runoff observations:
*Citing the 2008 Senate race, in which Democratic candidate Jim Martin fell far behind GOP incumbent Saxby Chambliss in a runoff, Silver pointed out that a presidential election was held that year. With presidential winner Barack Obama not on the runoff ballot, Democratic participation fell precipitously. “There might not be such a disproportionate drop in Democratic turnout in an off-year election,” Silver said.
* Silver theorized that if the Senate remains undecided going into the runoff, voters might look more at party identification than the candidates’ individual qualities. That would help Perdue, because the state still tilts Republican.
* Libertarian candidate Amanda Swafford’s supporters would be expected to shift to Perdue. However, Silver said that Swafford’s positions are split between the major parties, so many Swafford voters might shift to Nunn.
Football and politics?: The Senate runoff not only would occur three days after the new Congress is sworn in. The overtime vote would also take place right in the middle of the new college football playoffs.
After Jan. 1 semifinals at the Rose and Sugar bowls, the championship final will be held Jan. 12. Some football pundits see the Georgia Bulldogs with a shot of making the playoffs. So, the election could fall in the midst of excitement over a Dawgs title game.
By the way, the last year Georgia won the national title, 1980, Republican Ronald Reagan defeated Democratic incumbent President Jimmy Carter of Georgia, and the GOP gained control of Congress.
The Dawgs took another title in 1942. In that year’s midterm elections, Republicans made gains, but not enough to dent President Franklin Roosevelt’s Democratic majority.
