What is the impact of first-time ever Sunday voting in Georgia, which occurred in several Democratic-heavy counties? It isn’t a big deal— at least this year. Mark Rountree and Mike Seigle of Landmark Communications have compiled interesting findings. “Of the people who voted in person on Sunday, 835 did not vote in 2012, 2013 or 2014. The rest (just under 12,000 people) did. … Sunday voting resulted in very few new voters in 2014: approximately 93 percent of voters historically already have shown they will vote anyway based on their vote histories,” Rountree says. Here’s the breakdown:
* 835 are identified as having not voted in 2012, 2013 or 2014.
* Of these, 337 voters are identified as African American, 40 Hispanic, 170 White, 10 Asian.
* 219 could not be linked to a racial designation code (due to some newer voters not listing their race, or differences in construction of the voter database).
“Due to the limited amount of time to organize operations in 2014, Sunday voting won’t have a big impact on the likely outcome — unless there is a statewide race that is won or lost (or driven to a runoff) by a margin of just a few hundred votes,” Rountree says.
Now for the latest poll numbers. Several polls released yesterday tell us, well, not much new. Both the governor’s race and the U.S. Senate contest still appear headed for runoffs. But, as Insider Advantage pollster Matt Towery cautions, “that could still change by Tuesday, election day.” He cautions that polling is particularly tough in Georgia, due to different ways information is gathered and by changing demographics. However, he abides by the RealClearPolitics averages of all Georgia polling.
In the governor’s race, RealClear currently has GOP Gov. Nathan Deal at 46.7 percent and Democrat Jason Carter at 44.1. “Deal has been inching upward a bit recently,” Towery notes, “so there is a slight possibility that he could climb to 49 percent by Nov. 4. But that’s still a runoff.”
In the race to succeed retiring U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss, RealClear has Republican David Perdue at 46.1 percent and Democrat Michelle Nunn at 45 percent. This race is also headed for a runoff, unless there is a final Perdue surge. (Perdue is counting on mobilizing last-minute evangelical Christian voters, and is buoyed by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee coming in to campaign for him. Huckabee, by the way, won the 2008 Georgia GOP presidential primary and has a strong statewide following that no doubt has been enhanced by his Fox News cable television show.)
Finally, let’s analyze the fascinating story of the millennials– those voters in the ages 18 through 29 category. Most pundits think they trend heavily Democrat, especially since 29 percent say they are not affiliated with any religion. They used to trend Democrat, but Harvard University pollster John Volpe now says millennials are leaning more Republican in recent years. A Harvard poll released yesterday, for example, found President Barack Obama’s approval rating
to be 43 percent, and his disapproval 53 percent, with this age group. And, in a switch from two years ago, 51 percent of “definite” millennial voters seek a GOP-controlled Congress as opposed to 47 percent who want a Democrat-controlled Congress. Towery says this GOP trend is also starting to be seen in Georgia.
Incidentally a Pew Research Center survey released in March concluded with an interesting nugget: “Millennials are also distinctive in how they place themselves at the center of self-created digital networks. Fully 55 percent have posted a ‘selfie’ on a social media site; no other generation is inclined to do this.” So both parties, naturally, are stepping up their social media voter outreach (Facebook, Twitter, blogging, etc.) to reach this increasingly self-absorbed generation.
