A survey of 547 likely Florida Republican presidential primary voters shows former Governor Jeb Bush and businessman Donald Trump statistically tied for first place among the candidates currently seeking the GOP nomination for president. The telephone and mobile device survey was conducted August 3, 2015. The poll is weighted for age, race, and gender and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1% with a confidence level of 95%.

The results:

Donald Trump: 27%

Jeb Bush: 26%

Ben Carson: 8%

Ted Cruz: 8%

Marco Rubio: 7%

Scott Walker: 6%

Mike Huckabee: 4%

John Kasich: 3%

Carly Fiorina: 2%

Bobby Jindal: 2%

Rand Paul: 2%

Chris Christie: 1%

Rick Perry: 1%

Lindsey Graham, George Pataki and Rick Santorum: 0%

Other: 1%

Undecided: 2%

Analysis from pollster/columnist Matt Towery of InsiderAdvantage/Creators Syndicate/FOX5 Atlanta:

“OpinionSavvy conducted this poll with our organization in numerous southern states. Florida was one of only two states where Donald Trump did not have a huge lead over all of the other candidates. But in Florida, former Governor Jeb Bush is basically tied with Trump.

But Mr. Trump’s numbers are close to the 30% level he received in most other states we polled. This means that Mr. Trump is likely polling the same type of Republican voter that he is in other states. His voters seem to be conservative and frustrated with elected or former elected officials.

Bush, who in most states seems to attract support from what I would term ‘Chamber of Commerce’ Republicans, does best in Florida, where voters are most  familiar with his record and style of governing.

I would also note that Bush does better with female voters in the survey while Trump enjoys a better response from men. Given results in other states we polled at the same time, it seems possible that Bush might eventually even out any gender gap, which could bolster his numbers down the road. Based on the trends in these other surveys, Trump seems a bit less likely to bring his female support up to the level he enjoys with male voters in the state.

The next group of candidates, who received between 4% to 8% in the poll, would be most likely to rise in future polls should Mr. Trump stumble. However, the last presidential cycle taught us that anyone can find his or her moment in the spotlight. At the moment, that spotlight certainly belongs to Mr. Trump in most states and is shared with Governor Bush in Florida. Of note in the survey, Mr. Trump and Governor Bush share the lead among Hispanic/Latino votes. That might seem problematic for Sen. Rubio, but this race is a long way out and Rubio has shown a tendency to strengthen as time passes in his past races.”


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