Whether it will really be competitive or not in November, the Georgia Senate race is among the leading campaigns in the nation in terms of journalist interest.
Last week, U.S. News & World Reports listed it as one of seven that will determine control of the Senate after this year’s elections and Vice President Joe Biden came to Georgia to raise money for Nunn, despite the fact she still has a contested Democratic primary election ahead of her.
Atlanta-based Cameron McWhirter wrote for the Wall Street Journal about the recent Gainesville Senate Debate held by the Georgia Republican Party, and the lay of the land for the Peach State this year.
At a recent debate in this city about 50 miles northeast of downtown Atlanta, four of the five called for elimination of the Internal Revenue Service. Some called for elimination of the Environmental Protection Agency. U.S. Rep. Paul Broun said the U.S. should pull out of the United Nations and kick it out of the country. He also called for elimination of the Department of Education. “I directly challenge the constitutional legitimacy of today’s federal government,” he said.
Many of these positions drew applause at the debate, held in one of the most conservative areas of this red state. But even here, Republicans worry that swinging too far right in the primary may hurt the GOP’s chances in a general-election contest likely to feature a formidable Democratic challenger.
Dean Rowan, a 62-year-old handyman in the audience, said he liked Mr. Broun, who said in 2012 that evolution and the Big Bang Theory were “lies straight from the pit of hell.” But Mr. Rowan said he wasn’t sure whom he would vote for. While he supports Mr. Broun’s views, “that’s not the way to get elected,” he said.
In the race to fill the seat of Sen. Saxby Chambliss, a two-term Republican who isn’t seeking re-election, many Georgia Republican voters are looking for the most conservative candidate who they think can win a general election. The leading primary candidates are Mr. Broun, U.S. Reps. Jack Kingston and Phil Gingrey, former Dollar General Corp. Chief Executive David Perdue and former Secretary of State Karen Handel. The primary will be held May 20, likely followed by a July runoff between the two top vote-getters.
Greg Bluestein, of the AJC, wrote in the Political Insider about a recent poll commissioned by Democratic third party Better Georgia from Public Policy Polling.
A poll released Monday conducted by left-leaning Public Policy Polling is showing some separation in the wide-open GOP contest to replace U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss.
The poll, commissioned by the lefty guerrilla group Better Georgia, has Rep. Paul Broun of Athens at 27 percent in the GOP contest. Rep. Phil Gingrey of Marietta is at 14 percent, Rep. Jack Kingston of Savannah is at 13 percent and businessman David Perdue is at 12 percent. Former Secretary of State Karen Handel notches 9 percent in the question, which involved only those who identified themselves as GOP primary voters. About a quarter were undecided.
It gets more interesting in head-to-head matchups with Democratic front-runner Michelle Nunn. Respondents had Nunn and Broun at a 38 percent deadlock, and Nunn with slight leads over Kingston, Handel and Gingrey. (A matchup between Nunn and Perdue was apparently not one of the questions.)
The poll involved 580 voters surveyed between March 5-6. Roughly half of the respondents said they generally vote in GOP primaries and 41 percent vote in Democratic contests. Some 49 percent favored Mitt Romney in 2012, compared to 43 percent who backed Barack Obama.
The polling results memo embedded in the AJC story is formatted in a way that makes it difficult to read – so, here is a link to the poll results in a different format.
Two salient points emerge from this article, to the extent that we take the polling results at face value. Before we get to that, one note about methodology. The stated universe is 580 voters, which gives about a +/-4.1 margin of error, but the sample size for questions about the Republican Primary is 324 voters, yielding a margin of error of +/-5.44 points.
First, Paul Broun has an early lead, with nearly twice the vote total (27%) of the next competitive candidates, Phil Gingrey (14%) and Jack Kingston (13%). But, with a +/-5.44 margin of error, everyone except Broun is essentially even.
Second, Paul Broun is the only Republican candidate in the survey who is even with presumed Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn, splitting the vote 38-38. All other Republican candidates trail Nunn, though we aren’t shown a head-to-head between David Perdue and Nunn.
Last night, I was listening to “Tell Me More” on NPR and heard an interesting segment about CPAC, but one point stood out as being. Paul Orzulak, a Democratic speech writer, said this about Rand Paul’s winning the CPAC straw poll, “the candidates that can throw the most red meat, who can say the most outrageous things, usually vault ahead.” I think that’s the dynamic you’re seeing right now with Paul Broun.
I believe that Paul Broun has a hard core of support from the most-Conservative elements of the base electorate whose support for him has such an intensity that they will show up to vote for Broun no matter what, but as the other candidates start spending their warchests in earnest, at least one will pass Broun.
Today, if I were a betting man, I’d put down $250 on Paul Broun to show, meaning to come in first or second, and head into a runoff. Among the other major candidates – Kingston, Gingrey, Handel, and Perdue, it’s still a jump ball, with each candidate’s height determined by the stacks of cash on which they stand. In a jump ball situation, stature conveys an advantage, but you still have to get your hands on the ball.
