Two weeks. That is how long Stacey Abrams and Brian Kemp, along with everyone else down-ballot, have left to convince voters to cast a ballot for them. According to the most recent polls, Abrams and Kemp are statistically tied with only 3-5% of voters left undecided on their preference.
Predicting the results of an election is a fool’s game, especially one this close and especially one in this particular political climate. However, with early voting well underway, there is some insight that can be drawn about the state of the race right now.
Most clearly, voters are excited to go to the polls. At the end of the first week of early voting in 2014, 166,153 people had voted. At the end of last week, 521,867 people had voted, an increase of 214% over 2014. Georgians are immersed in politics more than we have ever been. The Trump circus dominates nearly every news cycle and with Kemp behaving like Georgia’s own Trump-lite, people are rushing to the polls in an effort to seize back some control by voting for Abrams or put their stamp of approval on that behavior by voting for Kemp.
There are also a lot of voters going to the polls that did not show up in 2014. Less than half of 2018’s early voters did so four years ago. 30% of the people who have voted so far this year did not vote in 2014 at all. Breaking it down even further, more than 75% of the 18-29 year-olds who have voted so far this year did not do so in 2014. While older generations still make up the majority of early voters (74% of early voters are 50+), the vast increase in young voter turnout indicates that they finally have a candidate who excites them.
Last, county turnout fills in a few more of the gaps. In Clayton and Fulton counties, for example, two of the most Democratic-leaning counties in the state, early vote totals are up 418% and 385% over 2014, respectively. In Forsyth and Hall County, two similarly strong Republican-leaning counties of significant size, early vote totals are up 291% and 94%, respectively.
Some of these signs favor Democrats and some favor Republicans. There is no question that this is the most competitive election Georgia has seen in the last 16 years. Both Abrams and Kemp have legions of strong supporters and vocal detractors who are making historic waves in this state, but this is still anyone’s race.
Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.
Tharon Johnson is a consultant with Paramount Consulting Group and a Democrat strategist.
