It was widely recognized that Georgia might vote for a Democrat campaigning statewide, but many doubted that the state was on the verge of such a dramatic change. Now that the state has voted for Joe Biden and sent Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff to the Senate, there can be no doubt that Georgia is a tossup state where each party has a shot at victory. The results require rethinking of some of what we thought we “knew.” On some dimensions, the results fit with pre-existing patterns but patterns largely overlooked or forgotten. On other dimensions, the outcomes reveal a break with the past.
Turning first to results that diverge from the past, prior to January 5, the touch stone of general election runoffs was that Republicans were advantaged and perhaps even had a lock on these types of contests. Republicans had won all seven of the previous partisan general election runoffs. Even when a Democrat led in the general election, like Senator Wyche Fowler did in 1992, the Republican won the runoff. Not only did Democrats win the two Senate runoffs, Ossoff had to come from behind to defeat David Perdue, the individual who in November received more votes than anyone had in the states’ history.
As part of debunking the myth that Republicans always win general election runoffs, is the myth surrounding the explanation for that result. Unlike in the past, Democrats did a better job of getting their voters to return to the polls. Turnout in the runoff was impressive. With almost 4.5 million votes, only the November 2020 contests attracted more voters. Yet, Democrats did a better job, perhaps spurred by a grassroots effort, than they did not have in November. Republicans failed to maintain their record of out-mobilizing Democrats.
For the last couple of decades, partisan support has divided largely along an urban-rural fault line. That pattern persisted but in all but four counties Ossoff secured a larger share of the vote in the runoff than in the general election. His gains never reached 4 percentage points and sometimes were just a fraction of a point, nonetheless, he advanced almost everywhere in the state.
The pattern for 2020 and 2021 votes has an historic precedent. Democrats’ successes bear strong resemblance to the breakthrough scored by the GOP 40 years ago. Republicans’ first major success below the presidency came in 1980 when political novice Mack Mattingly toppled the Talmadge family dynasty. In going to the Senate, Mattingly won only 29 counties. But he dominated the big Atlanta-area counties taking 71% of the Cobb vote, 69% in DeKalb, 68% in Gwinnett and 57% in Fulton. Biden, Warnock and Ossoff also succeeded with urban strength as they won 30 counties each while running up the vote in the same four counties that elected Mattingly. Warnock got 84% of the DeKalb vote, 73% in Fulton, 61% in Gwinnett and 57% in Cobb. The other two Democratic winners did almost as well.
Analyses of thousands of primary runoffs show that the candidate who leads initially wins the runoff 70% of the time. Warnock’s success fits with that but what about Perdue’s loss after he led the first round by 88,000 votes. Incumbents forced to compete in runoffs do not fare as well as challengers or candidates for open seats. Incumbents like Perdue, who finished first, win 57 percent of their runoffs. Incumbents who finish second, like Kelly Loeffler, win only 18 percent of the time. Not many senators have had to compete in runoffs but of those who have, the success rate in less than 50%.
Being wealthy has, at times, helped candidates. The rich can reserve ad space and hire staff right after announcing and not have to wait on contributions. Some very wealthy individuals have had great political success as evidenced by two Rockefeller brothers becoming governors and multiple Kennedys across generations winning a range of offices although 2020 witnessed the primary defeat of Joe Kennedy, III.
Georgia voters have found well-heeled candidates less appealing. Wealthy Guy Millner lost three general elections in the 1990s, twice for governor and once for the Senate. Michael Coles, founder of the Great American Cookie Company, failed to unseat Paul Coverdell in 1998. Millionaire Roger Kahn (D) lost the 11th Congressional District in 2002 right after Democrats fashioned what they thought was a safe seat for their party. One Democratic Senate ad criticized Loeffler and Perdue for both being millionaires. Experimental research by political scientists has found that voters are not attracted to wealthy candidates believing them to be dishonest, uncaring and unlikely to represent the interests of the average citizen.
For years, both parties have tried to get their followers to cast ballots before election day. Voting early ensures that unforeseen events will not keep people from voting. Prior to 2020, older voters, who tend to be Republicans, made greater use of absentee voting which is why the GOP spearheaded the move to the no-fault absentee voting that we have today. In response to the seeds of doubt that President Trump spread about absentee voting, Republicans, despite the urging by the state Republican Party, made relatively little use of this option. That allowed Democrats to run up huge majorities, leads so large that Republicans could not catch up on election day. Once the pandemic is reined in, Democrats will probably make greater use of early in-person voting as they did in the past. If Republicans make absentee voting more difficult, it may backfire by making it harder for the elderly – who in the past were the group most likely to vote absentee and who are the age group most inclined to vote Republican – to vote.
Charles S. Bullock, III, is the Distinguished University Professor of Public and International Affairs at the University of Georgia. He is co-author of Runoff Elections in the United States.
