Georgia news watchers may have closely followed the runoffs on Tuesday, including a few high profile campaigns – the Cobb Commission Chairman race featuring Tim Lee who helped mastermind the Braves move, the race for Georgia’s third Congressional District, the possible return to politics of Vernon Jones and the campaign of the last WWII vet serving in the Georgia legislature – but the historic failure of incumbents and the tightness of some of the races deserves another look.
In the District 3 race, the retirement of Lynn Westmoreland meant there was no incumbent in the race and despite some high profile endorsements from State Sen. Josh McKoon and Texas Senator, former presidential candidate, and Trump non-endorser Ted Cruz, Crane ended up losing the race to former West Point Mayor Drew Ferguson by about 3,000 votes. The result was much different than the tight finish of less than 100 votes in May that led to the runoff.
As for the incumbents, it was not a good night but not necessarily a surprise considering the past decade of results. Most incumbents are able to avoid primaries or runoffs altogether but when it happens, incumbents have not had a good run lately. David Beaudoin, of the blog localandspecialelections.com, compiled the won/loss record of state legislative incumbents in runoffs going back to 2008. This year their record was 0-3 – Rep. Tom Dickson (R- HD 6), Rep. John Yates (R- HD 73) and Rep. Darryl Jordan (D- HD 77). Since 2008, the overall record is 5-11.
Particularly heartbreaking for Dickson and Yates is how close they each were from avoiding a runoff altogether during the May primary. Dickson got 49.7% of the vote in May, missing the majority by a mere 16 votes. Yates received 49% in May, 51 votes short of avoiding the runoff. According to Beaudoin, going back to 2008, five candidates had been forced into a runoff after winning 49% or more in the primary, all five of those candidates proceeded to win the runoff – including current congressman Tom Graves, defeating Lee Hawksin in the runoff after receiving 49.% in the primary.
As for the incredible turnout numbers, it was indeed a lesson in how “your vote counts” – if Dickson’s 16 vote threshold miss was not enough of a lesson in April. Four of the 14 races were decided by less than 100 votes. State House District 80, a nominally Republican seat currently held by a Democrat but one Republicans hope to pick back up this fall, was very close. When the current officeholder, Taylor Bennett, was elected, he received 2,715 votes out of nearly 5,000 total votes cast. This runoff’s winner, Meagan Hanson, won 777 votes compared to 748 for her challenger Alan Cole. Even more astonishing was the finish in the Democrat primary of State Senate District 43. Out of the total of 8,532 voters that turned out, Tonya Anderson received 4,270, only eight more votes than the challenger. This will almost certainly result in an official recount.
The next time you hear someone say their vote doesn’t matter, remind them of Tonya Anderson.
