Political observers nationwide often present concern over a relative lack of competitive races. After all, only 7.2% of Congressional districts feature crossover candidates, (districts which voted for a Congressional Rep. of a different party from who they voted for President). On a statewide level the problem is worse – only about 65% of seats in a given election year even have major party opposition.
That problem manifests itself in Georgia in a major way. A staggering 80% of incumbents in the State House of Representatives and State Senate are running unopposed. Part of that reason is just politics – it’s hard to unseat an incumbent with all their built in advantages, so smart challengers bide their time. The other issues though are real problems: A) the way that districts in Georgia have been drawn, and B) the inability of the state’s political parties, (looking at you Democrats) to find and field competitive candidates.
Redistricting has always been a contentious topic in politics. It’s hard not to have an issue when your opponents are the ones drawing up the maps. But there’s reason to believe that here in Georgia redistricting has been done in such a way to restrict competition even more than is usual nationwide. That 7.2% of Congressional districts with crossover candidates might sound low, but compared to the Georgia State Legislature it’s sky high. Only 1.2% of Georgia state House seats are crossovers, that’s just 3 of 236 elected officials statewide. In 2014 a whopping zero seats swapped parties, leaving Republicans with supermajorities in both the House and Senate, quite the coup for a state projected to be within 5 points in today’s Presidential election.
Democrats have of course made efforts to re-district. In 2015 a House Resolution sponsored by Pat Gardner and Mary Margaret Oliver would have taken reapportionment out of the hands of the legislature and given it to an ‘independent, nonpartisan commission’. The resolution made it about as far as you’d expect in a Republican dominated House, which is to say it never made it past pre-filing.
With the deck stacked against them it would be easy for the Democrats to throw their hands up in the air and continue to wait for demographics to change enough to allow them to start winning seats back. EVen that may not happen though, if their political machine isn’t running smoothly enough to field competitive candidates.
Take candidate for Senate Jim Barksdale for example. The businessman came from total political anonymity to carry the Democratic banner into battle against Republican Johnny Isakson, but with tepid support from his party struggled to win his primary and is unlikely to put up much of a fight today. Isakson, while a well-funded incumbent, presented a vulnerable target due to his age, recent Parkinson’s diagnosis, and unrepentant support of one Donald Trump, whose relative unpopularity has turned beet red Georgia into what many pollsters are calling a ‘toss up’.
If the Dems can’t find a legitimate candidate to run for U.S. Senate, what hope do they have of finding local candidates prepared to square off against entrenched State Representatives and Senators? When just 5 of the 180 State House districts were within five points in 2012, would a ‘good’ candidate even make a big difference?
Not likely to happen today, though there are a small number of state House races projected to be competitive.
Check back in with InsiderAdvantage throughout the evening for the latest updates on elections taking place throughout Georgia.
