It happens almost every time. My personal closest friend gets in a political race. I have to poll and analyze the contest. They have the worst advisors in the world, they run lousiest TV, and they end up losing…big time. History might be repeating itself.
Jack Kingston, to no exclusion of his opponents, has been a friend and truly treasured one since 1980. That makes both of us ancient. But I do not apologize for our age nor our years of knowing each other. Jack was there for me when I was fighting to win a GOP nomination for Lt. Governor in a year no one cared about and in in a time when no Republican could possibly hope to defeat a Democrat. He and Eric Johnson held a mosquito infested shrimp boil in my honor when few cared about me (as if they do now!).
But my job requires polling races without pride (I have none), nor prejudice. And it requires that I take no prisoners in our polling or analysis. That’s good news for David Perdue. He is the only major candidate for the Republican nomination who I can honestly say I don’t know…at all.
The rest are all friends. Karen Handel was a fine Secretary of State and she and her husband have always been friendly. She has been vilified unfairly and has great potential as a candidate. And she is a gutsy and very smart woman!
Paul Broun is not the “nut” he is portrayed as being by the media. He is a bit “eccentric” but in a very happy and friendly way. I have fond memories of him campaigning as a Republican in 1990, when his father, a prominent Democratic state Senator, reigned supreme. That took guts and I remember him for his courage and kindness.
And none of the candidates is nicer than Phil Gingrey. A truly great guy who has a heart bigger than all of Georgia.
All of that said, the polling tells me that David Perdue continues to lead this race, that Karen Handel is moving up quickly, and that the man who would be my U.S. Senator…might be the odd man out.
Why is that the case?
First, Perdue has run a darn near textbook perfect campaign. His ads are vastly superior to that of his opponents. I mean worlds ahead of them. He looks handsome (remember, politics is Hollywood for the ugly, so it is all relative) and he seems like a skilled and strong outsider ready to end “politics as usual.”
Secondly, Jack Kingston’s ad campaign is the worst I have seen in decades. It assumes that Georgia Republicans love twangy talking, cheap, crummy car driving leaders. They don’t. And with every ad my friend runs, his numbers in metro-Atlanta go down.
Trust me, in my heart I hope I am wrong. But since 2000 only one politician in this state has earned the right to criticize our polling. That would be Lt. Governor Casey Cagle, who does criticize our polling often (but not to me). We made the mistake of putting out a last minute “poll”—so to speak—showing Ralph Reed gaining momentum on Cagle in 2006, on the final day before the election. Our official poll had them tied…but we ventured into silly territory and Casey, who is another longtime friend, has never forgotten. Sorry, Governor—we missed one time in fourteen years and you were the fall guy!
Now, back to Jack. He’s clearly qualified to be the next U.S. Senator and has the strongest Georgia GOP credentials of the lot. But his campaign is faltering. Unless he abandons his “folksy” ad campaign that was created months ago and reacts with more sophisticated ads in the next few weeks, he could risk not making it to the runoff.
As for Ms. Handel, money has always been the big issue. Karen permanently made enemies of Governor Deal and his friends when she chose to take on his character and honesty in the 2010 gubernatorial runoff. She challenged him to out his “big boy pants on” and that has led to the “big boy” donors cutting her off in this current run. Still she has managed to scrape money and endorsements together and has the only real “momentum” in this less than exciting race, with only a few weeks to go.
I can’t figure out what my friend Phil Gingrey is doing in this race. With a metro-Atlanta base, I once considered him the most likely to lead the pack. But his first ad was absolutely wretched and his presence on TV has all but evaporated. He could still upset the applecart but his time is running out.
As for Paul Broun, I have written and opined since last year that polling in Georgia was showing that the “tea party” movement had lost steam among GOP voters. Paul needed that “tea party” express to keep steaming along to create a voter turnout that could overcome his lack of funding. So far it looks like the train is out of steam and Paul might be left behind at the station.
That brings me back to Jack Kingston. The man who stood by Ronald Reagan, backed Mack Mattingly in his upset of Herman Talmadge and joined Newt Gingrich in the “Contract with America” has failed to tell any of that history to Georgia GOP voters. Instead his handlers have presented an old car (Atlantans are notorious for giving their last dollar for an elegant “ride”), and a loveable and oh so attractive family in an ad that makes their father appear cheap and controlling. It’s going over with female voters in the sophisticated Atlanta market…like a lead balloon.
Why not run ads bringing true Republicans to the one with the strongest and longest ties to the part in Georgia?
Oh, that’s right, that would require cutting new ads and swallowing pride.
So with just a few weeks to go, here’s what might happen.
First, on election night, when the numbers pour in from south of Atlanta, Kingston will appear to be ahead of all candidates, And Broun, whose strength is outside of Atlanta, may well appear to be running a close second.
Don’t be fooled. Cobb County, once the most efficient election office in the state, is now a wreck. Their numbers will trickle in along with longtime laggards such as Fulton County. Along with counties such as Cherokee and Gwinnett, the lead for Kingston and Broun will evaporate. The race will appear like a Kentucky Derby photo-finish…until these critical metro-Atlanta counties come in.
And therein can be found the political future of the three current frontrunners.
If Ms. Handel finds money and runs network affiliate broadcast ads, she will make the runoff. It is that simple. No money, no ads, she ends up in a very close third position.
So then it is down to the “alleged” frontrunners. As for Mr. Perdue, it is clear in all the polling that his momentum has stalled. He needs “something different” to guarantee a runoff position. In my opinion that would be an ad featuring former Governor Sonny Perdue, his cousin. Sonny is still popular and a funny take-off on his very popular “Sonny-Do” list (done with Miss Mary in his 2006 reelection) could do the trick.
But as for Jack, it is a matter of taking control of his own campaign. His ad guys are the best in the nation. And his pollster polls for Governor Deal. But sadly in this race they are both off target. The “country Jack” ads are killing him with swing female voters and independent voters who tend to fill a GOP primary. Kingston must demand that a set series of ads, all filmed and staged months ago, be tossed out in favor of newly cut material that focuses on the brilliant, conservative, and experienced Republican leader that is the real Kingston.
That likely won’t happen and even halfway decent ads for Jack run by the U.S. Chamber (hint…most Georgians don’t know or care about the harbor in Savannah) won’t save him.
If Handel gets any money and Kingston’s advisors continue to convince him that they know Georgia…we will likely see a Perdue-Handel runoff. But if Gingrey shows any last minute spark, or Perdue continues to fade, or Handel never gets on “big boy” TV, then all bets are off and election night could come down to the last few precincts in Fulton or Cobb. “Oh what joy” for those of us covering the thing on TV!
