With a full slate of races set to conclude next Tuesday, (or at least head to a runoff) it appears that low turnout may be the theme of the day statewide. A small army of Atlanta mayoral candidates haven’t quite been able to capture the city’s undivided attention, while a slew of elections for the state legislature, county commissions, and other smaller mayorships have hardly made a blip on the radar.
That’s good news though for plugged in and motivated voters, whose votes will, as they often do on cold and dreary off-cycle elections, count for more than usual. It also stands to benefit those candidates who have managed to mobilize and turn out their supporters, while others who rely on piggybacking off of more high profile races may find themselves below their internal polling averages.
Only about 12,000 votes have been cast so far in the Atlanta mayoral race, where projections show candidates will need about 15,000 to advance into the runoff. The race for Atlanta City Council to replace President Ceasar Mitchell, (among those running for mayor) will have similarly low numbers, but with only three candidates as opposed to eleven, avoiding a runoff is not out of the question for the winner.
Meanwhile in other parts of the state numbers are even lower. To the east of the state capital near Athens, it appears that only 1,500 early votes will be cast in the House District 117 special election to replace Republican Regina Quick, who is leaving to assume a judgeship. In nearby HD 119 less than 2,000 early votes will come in in the race to replace Republican Chuck Williams, who stepped down after being appointed director of the Georgia Forestry Commission.
If those numbers hold, both seats should only see between 3,000 and 4,000 votes, giving hope to Democrats seeking to flip the right-leaning seats. District 117 was close in particular, carried by Donald Trump by less than 5 points last November, giving Dems a reason to be optimistic that they can take the seat if they can turn out their base in what promises to be a low turnout affair.
Similarly in Fulton County Republican Gabriel Sterling will hope that low turnout will give his campaign a shot at taking the county chairmanship, normally held by Democrats. A pair of Dems, Robb Pitts and Keisha Waites, could split an already limited portion of the vote, giving Sterling a chance at winning outright should he be able to mobilize Republicans in the county. If Mary Norwood manages to do the same further up the ticket, it could be a very good day for the Atlanta GOP, normally known as the party more likely to turn out for smaller elections such as these.
