Democrat gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams released an internal poll the other day by a Democrat polling firm claiming she is ahead of both GOP gubernatorial contenders who are challenging each other in a July 24th primary runoff. However, internal polls done for both party candidates cannot be measured for accuracy, unlike voter surveys whose numbers can be compared over various election cycles.
But experts agree that voter turnout for the general election will be the key to victory.
Only 19 percent of registered voters of both parties voted on May 22– a terrible statistic. The Peach State has nearly 6.2 million active voters and less than one million from both parties showed up on primary election day.
Interestingly, there is a big gap between metro Atlanta and the rest of Georgia. In metro Atlanta 55 percent of those voting in a primary chose a Democrat ballot while in the rest of the state 62 percent voted Republican.
Democrats are naturally thinking this may be their year to win the governorship and perhaps other statewide offices. (They have basically been shut out of statewide constitutional offices since 2002.) Republicans, of course, believe they can win statewide offices due to an improving economy, the solid record of GOP Gov. Nathan Deal and the GOP-controlled Legislature and the increasing popularity (so far) of President Donald Trump.
Remember that almost 503,000 Republicans voted in the 2016 presidential primary and, that November, Trump won by 51 percent with approximately 1.2 million Georgians opting for the Republican.
The numbers are there for the Republicans to win again statewide this cycle if they can generate turnout. And look for a big fall Trump political rally to help generate that turnout support. Democrats are wondering if Abrams can generate equal or more enthusiasm this fall.
