A Survey/USA poll released on Tuesday place GOP gubernatorial candidate Brian Kemp and Democrat opponent Stacey Abrams at 47 to 45 percent, respectively. A statistical tie. But Georgia Democrats should note one of the facets of the survey: Independent voters break 46 percent to 29 percent for the Republican. And with about 18 percent of independent voters undecided, and if they break Republican in the same proportion, there would be a clear Kemp surge in coming weeks.
Another poll, a statewide one by Public Policy Polling (PPP), also found the two gubernatorial candidates tied at 46 percent with seven percent of respondents undecided. Interestingly, PPP found President Donald Trump’s Georgia approval rating has dramatically risen to 50 percent— another danger signal for Democrats that Republican and independent voters are being energized. Other national polls are just now indicating a “Kavanaugh effect”— i.e. voters disapproving of the shrill, over-the-top Democrat attacks on Trump’s just-confirmed nominee, Justice Brett Kavanaugh, to the U.S. Supreme Court.
Republicans in down-ballot races could also be benefitting from the “Kavanaugh effect” voter boost. For example, just two weeks ago InsiderAdvantage was privy to internal GOP polling showing Democrat John Barrow leading Republican Brad Raffensperger in the race for secretary of state. Now, in the PPP poll, Barrow is behind his GOP opponent 41 to 43 percent.
There are two races for Public Service Commission slots featuring Republican incumbents that PPP also surveyed. Well-funded Democrat candidate Lindy Miller is behind Republican Chuck Eaton. New GOP commissioner Tricia Pridemore is one point ahead of her Democrat rival.
Traditionally in Georgia more Republican voters than Democrats “drop off” and ignore a lot of down-ballot races after voting for governor and lieutenant governor. This may not be much of a factor this year with the “Kavanaugh effect” and as the direct mail, TV/radio and social media ad wars kick into high gear leading up to Nov. 6th Election Day.
