Georgia is into its second week of early voting with heavy numbers. Log on to the website http://georgiavotes.com/ to view early statewide vote totals. Particular attention should be given to the “rural” vote (counties under 50,000 population) to ascertain if Republican Brian Kemp ultimately wins the Nov. 6 gubernatorial election over Democrat Stacey Abrams.
InsiderAdvantage will be watching early voting/registration totals in 120 Georgia counties, and listed below among those 120 are the 10 counties with the highest early voting percentage so far; that is, percentage of active registered voters in each county who have already voted through Monday based on Georgia Votes website data. Ranked from highest (1) to lowest (10):
Pct. Already Voted Trump % 2016
(1) Rabun 22.4% 79.1%
(2) Greene 21.4% 62.1%
(3) Bacon 20.9% 83.7%
(4) Ben Hill 18.6% 63.0%
(5) Butts 18.1% 70.9%
(6) Pulaski 17.7% 67.7%
(7) Morgan 17.5% 69.5%
(8) Oconee 17.3% 67.4%
(9) Polk 16.7% 77.7%
(10) Pierce 16.6% 86.4%
Notice all 10 counties are relatively small (under 50,000 in population each)— which is to the point, that President Donald Trump’s victory in November 2016 came not from metro Atlanta (which opponent Hillary Clinton carried by 8 points) but from more rural or smaller suburban areas of the state. In fact, if you divide the state’s voter turnout in 2016 by over and under 50,000 population, this is what you get:
Population Trump Clinton
50,000 and over 46 50 (79 percent of total statewide votes in this subset)
Under 50,000 69 29 (21 percent of total statewide votes in this subset)
STATEWIDE: 51 46 (3 percent voted Libertarian).
Similarly in 2002, Republican Sonny Perdue (who ultimately won the governorship) ran about even with opponent Roy Barnes in Georgia’s metro areas, but Perdue trounced Barnes in the non-metro counties of Georgia.
Thus, the rural vote is crucial for a Kemp victory– even though vast majority of the state’s votes are in the more populated counties.
