The Georgia governor’s race will set a precedent if it heads into a runoff, as appears likely from recent polls.
If neither Democrat Jason Carter nor GOP incumbent Nathan Deal gather more than 50 percent of the votes in the Nov. 4 election, a runoff will be held on Dec. 2. Polls show each candidate in the 40 percent territory, with Libertarian Andrew Hunt having enough strength to put the race into extra innings.
Republicans have won two U.S. Senate runoff elections, but a runoff has never decided a GOP-Democrat governor’s race. In the previous Senate runoffs, Democrats faltered in getting supporters back to the polls, but that might not hold true in a gubernatorial runoff.
A runoff in the U.S. Senate race also appears likely, but Democrats wouldn’t receive a boost from having its two top candidates on the ballot on the same day if the governor’s race also goes to a runoff. Because of a Justice Department ruling, the Senate runoff would be held on Jan. 6, giving the state into two separate runoff elections in a little more than a month.
Democrats controlled the governor’s chair without significant Republican opposition in the late 19th century after Reconstruction and for most of the 20th century. Sonny Perdue, the first Republican elected governor in modern times, beat incumbent Roy Barnes in the general election in 2002. In 2010, Deal, also defeated Barnes without heading to a runoff.
GOP candidate Bo Callaway actually won the general election in 1966 with a plurality against Democrats Lester Maddox and write-in candidate Ellis Arnall, according to Internet sources.
But a runoff didn’t decide that election. Under state law then, the Georgia Legislature chose the winner if no candidate received a majority. The Democrat-controlled General Assembly picked Maddox over Callaway, a decision upheld by the U.S. and Georgia Supreme courts..
Jason Carter’s grandfather, Jimmy Carter, finished third in the Democratic primary in that race, his first statewide campaign. In 1970, Carter was elected governor, beating former Gov. Carl Sanders in a Democratic primary runoff, which assured victory in those days.
The Obama connection: President Barack Obama hovers over Georgia’s U.S. Senate and governor’s races.
Democrat Senate candidate Michelle Nunn and governor’s candidate Jason Carter show opposing strategies in regard to the second-term incumbent president, UGA political scientist Charles Bullock said.
“It’s interesting that Michelle Nunn and Jason Carter in appealing to the electorate are doing do in different ways,” Bullock said. “Nunn is seeking to keep the administration at arm’s length, while Carter shows a willingness to embrace it.” Which strategy proves most effective will “be interesting,” Bullock said.
Nunn has sought to distance herself from some aspects of Obamacare, while Carter blasts Deal for refusing to extend Medicaid insurance coverage to poor Georgians under the Affordable Care Act. Nunn also recently said that if elected, she will not necessarily vote for Nevada Sen. Harry Reid to remain as Senate majority leader.
While Nunn seeks to avoid an Obama connection, GOP opponent David Perdue and outside ads backed by TD Ameritrade founder Joe Ricketts’ Ending Spending Action Fund attempt to tie her to the president. Meanwhile, Nunn’s ads follow Obama’s winning script against GOP challenger Mitt Romney by painting Perdue as a callous businessman.
Optimistic forecast: As the governor’s and U.S. Senate races hinge on the state’s high unemployment rate and sluggish economy, a leading economics forecaster sees rays of hope for the future.
“The Peach State job engine is indeed humming,” Rajeev Dhawan of the Georgia State business school’s Economic Forecasting Center said last week in his quarterly report, according to a news release.
Dhawan said the state added a “very encouraging” 25,900 jobs in the second quarter, a big jump over the 6,800 added in the ice-bound first quarter. He projected a gain of 74,100 jobs this year, 15,300 of them “premium jobs.” However, that’s not as good as 2013, when Georgia added 83,400 jobs. He sees the state gaining 83,600 positions in 2015 and 86,600 in 2016.
While alarm grew over Georgia’s 7.8 percent unemployment rate in July, the nation’s 50th worst, Dhawan said state’s unemployment would average 7.2 percent this year, falling to 6.5 percent in 2015 and 5.6 percent in 2016.
Metro Atlanta will gain 52,900 jobs this year, 11,300 of them “premium,” with 55,600 to be added in 2015 and 59,400 in 2016, he said.
