Everywhere you look, in state after state, Republican prospects are looking up. But not necessarily in the once reliably red state of Georgia. That’s because a sort of political “Cold War” is being waged between two groups within the GOP.
On one side is the “establishment” wing of the party, dominated by Gov. Brian Kemp supporters and political operatives whose careers can often be traced to the late Sen. Johnny Isakson.
In my book there certainly isn’t anything wrong with having one’s credentials built under Isakson. But, as is true with so many disciples of great leaders, it’s pretty easy to say to some of those folks “you’re no Johnny.”
Then there is the other side of this GOP split. Just as the one side can be labeled, admittedly trite, the “Kemp-Isakson” wing of the Georgia GOP, the other could be termed the “Trump-Gingrich” faction. That same statement “you’re no Donald, or Newt” is as applicable to some attached to that wing of the Georgia GOP.
The current rift has its roots in what occurred, or more importantly, did not occur, immediately after the November 2020 election.
Questions about the 2022 election
Now we have been told by the Atlanta paper and the Associated Press that allegations calling into question the integrity of the election and runoffs in Georgia have been completely “debunked.”
Yet there are plenty of facts that would likely cause a fair and reasonable person to have serious questions about what went on in Fulton County alone in November of 2020. You likely never read that the county purchased an expensive software system to validate the signature of absentee voters on those pesky envelopes with the ballots inside of them. The software was later deemed “incompatible” with the voting system used by the county. That begs the question, why did they buy it?
There are lots of other questions about real and authentic facts arising out of that election. Why were Democrat leaning “non-profit” organizations allowed to provide additional resources to guarantee maximum voter turnout in counties with large numbers of Democrat voters– but no such “extra effort” went to heavily Republican areas? And can anyone explain the videos showing individuals visiting those magical drop boxes with what looks like many sets of absentee ballots, sometimes deciding to take a proud photo of them before slipping them into the box.
Same goes for the Senate runoff contests. How about that Christmas Eve gathering at a Cobb County hotel I personally witnessed where a large group from many different states gathered in a public room and shared stories how they had collected ballots on that snow flurry-filled day. They weren’t talking about Christmas Eve, perhaps they were celebrating a good harvest season instead.
I could go on listing things that have not been “debunked,” but you get the drift.
The problem from the start is that even if one believes that where there is smoke there is fire, this one could never be quantified. And without aggressive and immediate action, no one would ever know who started it or how. Most of the court cases the media points to as “conclusive” were in fact decided based on the procedural issue of standing, or lack thereof.
Beyond the lawsuits, “silly” things like an audit of signatures of absentee ballots in Cobb County, in past years the best run and most honest election department in the state, ended up supplying the “evidence” that “debunked” anything that might have cast a shadow on validity of signatures on envelopes containing, let’s say 145,000, absentee ballots in Fulton. Envelopes that, absent that software they passed on, forced those myriad signatures to be validated by Fulton County election workers. And this in a county known to be one of the most unreliable elections divisions in the state.
What was not “debunked” was the genuine anger many Georgia Republican voters had over elections they felt were not fair. They watched the vote counting in November suddenly end in midstream and intuitively said “I’ve not seen that before…that’s not right.” And they were shocked that nothing was done to better secure the two runoff contests that decided the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.
That is where the split between the two GOP camps, which had mildly existed for decades, became as wide as the Grand Canyon.
The impact of the GOP split
The split remains but the political memories for most voters don’t last long.
Kemp was all but written off as having even a remote chance of being re-elected. Donald Trump had made Kemp public enemy No. 1 for his silence and inaction regarding the November 2020 contest. But last year I wrote that no one should count Kemp out. Being a governor of a state which gives that individual greater power than almost any other state grants is a significant weapon in any re-election.
With early voting just over a month away, Kemp leads GOP challenger David Perdue by almost 10 points in our latest InsiderAdvantage poll conducted for Fox5 Atlanta. Most other surveys show the same. But only one poll, a Fox network poll, shows Kemp at 50 percent. That poll has been dismissed by most savvy Georgia political observers for its unusual methodology.
Where the GOP contest sits now
Kemp is leading in part because the “debunked” election debacle in Georgia has drifted out of the minds of most Republican voters. Having a remarkably good legislative session, Kemp has dominated the news day after day. It helps pump up his name identification and favorable ratings.
Meanwhile Perdue’s team has put together a weak campaign that has failed to lay a glove on Kemp. His ads are mediocre at best, with the Trump endorsement ad being the lone exception. The much-discussed independent PAC is missing in action. What little has appeared in independent expenditures label Kemp a “RINO.” That is insider-speak that won’t reach the additional voters Perdue needs.
Ironically, as a highly successful past CEO, Perdue is arguably better prepared to serve as governor than any other recent candidate for the office. But money truly is the mother’s milk of politics and Perdue currently doesn’t have enough. His only chance so late in the contest is to shift to all negative ads on Kemp and hope that two visits by Trump will energize enough voters to vote early or head for the polls. For this one, absent a complete change in Perdue and his backers’ ad strategies, walking on water may be required. A tough act even for Trump!
The Vernon Jones primary factor
Here is a shock. Perdue’s situation would not be so urgent had candidate Vernon Jones stayed in the gubernatorial primary. Perdue is not currently getting, and will not on Election Day, all of Jones’s votes. Had Jones stayed in, the odds were very high that Kemp and Perdue would be headed for a runoff. And as students of Georgia politics know oh so well, Georgia runoffs most often go to the candidate with the lower vote total in the first round. Why? Because the perceived leading candidate suddenly looks vulnerable and donors start to hedge their bets by finding a way to fund both candidates.
Of course, that could still happen given that there remains another candidate on the ballot who has a small but very devoted following. But the exit by Jones was a real blow to Perdue even as his own boosters celebrated it.
Still there remains that little problem for Kemp. Almost every poll shows him under 50 percent and that is not a good position for an incumbent governor. Kemp’s ads are the equivalent of a political “rope-a-dope.” They argue that only he can unite the GOP and defeat Democrat Stacey Abrams. More about in a bit.
If Perdue or his supporters could find some significant money and run the sort of ads hitting Kemp for his election related inaction and an arguably tepid response to Georgia’s raging crime issues, they likely could still ultimately win the battle. That would require eking into a runoff and following through with the great Georgia tradition of beating the frontrunner in a runoff. But they must do that on their own.
Trump can perform amazing political miracles but, in the end, his endorsed candidates must run real campaigns to win the battles.
But what about the war?
It’s clear who Democrats want to face in November. All one must do is read the Atlanta paper, which leans towards Democrats. Its clear theme in the GOP Primary is: Kemp good, Perdue bad.
That’s because should Kemp emerge as the nominee there’s more punch in the reverse message: Abrams good, Kemp bad. You can bet any amount on that– and you will win.
And then there’s Stacey Abrams
The truth is whichever Republican candidate gets the nomination, it will take Herculean effort to defeat Abrams. With two African-Americans at the top of the ticket for the Democrats, black turnout should soar through the roof. Meanwhile there will be a sliver of Republican voters still irritated at Kemp or put off by Perdue who either won’t vote for governor or simply won’t turn out to vote.
Abrams will have plenty of resources and she will have the best campaign consultant in America: herself. That’s right. Unlike most candidates, Abrams realistically understands politics. How many Republican candidates would have found a way to be unavailable had an unpopular GOP president come to Atlanta to speak on the very issue the candidate is most identified with? You can bet your bottom dollar to get to ride in that limo and be near that presidential seal, no GOP candidate who you have displays has that discipline. But Stacey does.
The years of GOP dominance in Georgia, which basically has had a 22-year run, will come to an end. If not this cycle, it will be soon. The demographics are shifting far too quickly, and the Georgia GOP continues its tradition of having two split camps. And the Georgia corporate community has absolutely no loyalty to the GOP. When it looks like the Georgia GOP is hanging on to a political cliff for dear life, they will be there to shove them off. That is a bet you won’t lose either.
Matt Towery is the co-founder and chairman of InsiderAdvantage and James Magazine
