Only two more days of early voting in Georgia remain, with a record-breaking 3,271,871 votes already cast. Voter participation is all well and good, but who’s going to WIN on election day?
Well, that’s hard to say from here, and both parties will likely give you different answers. But here’s what the numbers tell us:
Republicans are feeling confident in early voting numbers here in Georgia for a handful of reasons:
- Early vote totals in a number of Republican strongholds are strong, in places like Cherokee, Camden, Dawson, and Hall counties. In many total turnout is close to or has already eclipsed 2020 numbers. The Trump campaign has re-emphasized early voting in 2024 and GOP voters are clearly responding.
- Meanwhile, early voting in some key Democrat counties is lagging behind. Clarke (Athens) and Muscogee (Columbus) in particular aren’t seeing big turnout numbers yet.
- Voting age looks good for the GOP. Nearly two million early votes are from voters over the age of 50, who tend to lean Republican. Likewise there are about 225,000 voters over 50 who did not cast votes in 2020. Those votes could go either way – but history tells us that age group leans red.
- The black vote isn’t where it need to be for Democrats. Typically in a statewide race in Georgia Democratic candidates need about 30% of the total vote to prevail. So far that number is only at 26.1%.
Democrats aren’t giving up hope though, they have some numbers of their own in the data to hold onto.
- Female voters, who typically break towards the left, have a notable lead over male early voters in Georgia. With a 56% to 44% lead that’s nearly 400,000 votes, and Kamala Harris supporters are hoping that a higher than normal female turnout could make the difference. Men do typically vote heavier on election day, however.
- First time voters trend young. Well, duh, that’s to be expected, as fresh 18 year-olds register to vote for the first time. But the numbers tell us that over half of early voters who did not vote in 2020 are between 18-29, and historically that age group trends liberal. Some polls have indicated that Gen-Z is more conservative than previous generations – it remains to be seen if that will be the case come election day.
So what does it all mean? The polls say the race remains extremely tight, with Trump maintaining a small lead that falls within the margin of error. But turnout will be the defining theme of this election – and will it be the rural early vote surge that carries the day? Or will women break towards Kamala and defy the polls, as they did in 2022? We’ll find out next Tuesday, (or Wednesday, or the following week, or by Christmas…).
