The 2016 Iowa GOP Forum took place over the weekend, and the biggest takeaway may have been that we’re going to see one heck of a primary scrum.
Iowa’s GOP caucus leans quite hard toward the right, hardly a surprise considering the state’s rural and homogeneous makeup. The past two winners, (Mike Huckabee in 2008, Rick Santorum in 2012) were perhaps the most socially conservative in the race, and while in recent cycles the winner hasn’t been able to carry that momentum on to the Republican nomination, the state will be key in attaching the ‘Social Conservative Front-runner’ label to one of the myriad of candidates so direly pursuing it.
And boy, are there a lot of candidates reaching for that title. Former Arkansas Governor and Baptist Preacher Mike Huckabee, who carried Georgia in 2008, is back along with his hard-line Christian message. So too is former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, the runner up in 2012, who despite his success there has had a difficult time regaining momentum for his upcoming bid. Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker are also in the mix, and all need success in Iowa to gain enough momentum to compete in the Southern states, including Georgia, which might embrace them.
The more moderate candidates, who have seemingly had an edge in recent cycles, will more likely look to take a decent showing, not an outright win, into a wildly different political atmosphere in New Hampshire. While Marco Rubio and Rand Paul were on hand appealing to Iowan voters, their platforms seem less likely to yield a victory in the Hawkeye State.
With nearly 20 candidates already having announced or expected to do so, many have wondered how the media outlets hosting debates, (the first will be held by Fox News in August) will choose which candidates even make it on stage. After a contentious series of debates in 2012 where many thought the number of debaters was excessive, the GOP surely wants to cut down on the pot shots and increase the dialogue.
Here in the Peach State, the Iowa Caucus has provided a fairly good predictor of who might be the front-runners here at home. All the, (maybe-too-early) predictions that Georgia is turning purple don’t matter a whole lot in a GOP primary. The most moderate intentions of the ‘Buckhead Republicans’ and their business connections too, fall in importance – Mitt Romney carried most of Atlanta in 2012, while favorite son Newt Gingrich cruised to victory thanks to pretty much the whole rest of the state.
Already we see candidates veering to the right and railing against the moderate influences that in their minds have cost the GOP the past two Presidential elections. Expect, for instance, to hear a lot more about the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, already a heated topic in Georgia and elsewhere across the nation after its passage caused an uproar in Indiana earlier this year. Multiple candidates, most notably Bobby Jindal, made a point to talk about their firm opposition to gay marriage, an opinion that is wildly unpopular nationwide but may play well to Republican Iowan caucus-goers, not to mention many of their like-minded brethren in South Carolina and Georgia.
There simply isn’t enough money to go around for multiple candidates bearing the banner of social conservatism. Most will likely be forced to drop out after a poor showing in Iowa, leaving us with a culled field heading into New Hampshire and beyond. Look for the winner, though, to have a strong advantage as the race heads to dark red ‘SEC country’, an area that will be key for a contender to win if they want to stay in the race against the deep pockets of a looming Jeb Bush.
