In some ways, a Georgia Republican Primary is like a NASCAR race in reverse. It’s loud and often chaotic, some drivers will cause themselves or others to spin into the wall, but one thing remains constant: turning right. As April begins, we’ve warmed up the tires, got the engines at operating temp, now we have only to drive through the May 20th Primary.
In the Senate race, David Perdue appears to have staked himself to a solid position upon which to build in order to reach the runoff – funny how a million dollars worth of television will do that. And reports from the field are that he is currently pitching potential donors to help him fund another round of “baby commercials.” In political advertising, as in so much of the rest of media, content really is king. Jack Kingston has also built a solid base, but a couple of frankly uninspired biographical ads might not be doing the trick, though his multi-million dollar bank account assures that he should at least be able to keep Perdue from lapping him.
Paul Broun has Frankensteined together an unlikely alliance, with endorsements from both Georgia Right to Life, representing social conservatives, and the Republican Liberty Caucus, representing the Ron Paul-flavor of Republicans. Both groups have intensity on their side and in a low-turnout election could help Broun into a runoff berth.
The Eleventh Congressional District, featuring former state Senator Barry Loudermilk, former State Rep. Ed Lindsey, former Congressman Bob Barr, and former Deal administration appointee Tricia Pridemore has all the hallmarks of a great race to watch without actually becoming interesting yet.
Money is relatively tight this year, many I know describe it as a brutal fundraising environment, between a popular incumbent Governor, several established Senate candidates, three competitive Republican primaries for open Congressional seats and one to take on perpetual target Democratic incumbent John Barrow. So it’s not surprising that the less-monied campaigns are not yet getting spendy.
But, for my money, the Eleventh remains the race to watch. The publicly released polls don’t seem to agree on anything other than that Bob Barr is a likely runoff contestant. The race to join Barr in the primary will consist of three candidates with different strengths taking each other on for a chance to unleash years worth of opposition research on a candidate with near-universal name recognition, but who tends to polarize voters.
Advance voting begins later this month, on April 28th, and with ever larger numbers of voters casting ballots early, it’s getting to be now or never time for the candidates. Expect to see glossy mailers in your mailbox, ever-more urgent fundraising appeals in your email inbox, and finally, the air war on broadcast and cable television. Better buckle up.
