The Congressional runoffs in July have taken a bit of a backseat to the Senate matchup between Jack Kingston and David Perdue, but there are some interesting races unfolding that we’ll take a look at as the campaigns gear up for the stretch run. First among them is the runoff between State Sen. Buddy Carter and Dr. Bob Johnson to replace Jack Kingston in Georgia’s First Congressional District.
CD 1 is a heavily Republican district centered around Savannah. Mostly rural, the district contains several other small cities such as Brunswick, Valdosta, and Waycross, as well as the wealthy Republican hotspot that is St. Simons, (and its even wealthier sister – Sea Island). Jack Kingston has won re-election easily every year since taking office in 1993, so you can expect the winner of this runoff to advance to Washington D.C. in November. As a side-note, Kingston was actually the first Republican to ever represent the district, though it has only supported one Democrat in a Presidential election since 1960, (local boy Jimmy Carter).
Buddy Carter has been the frontrunner for Kingston’s seat since he announced his candidacy. The former Pooler Mayor served in the State House from 2004-2008 before being elected to the State Senate, where he chairs the Public Safety Committee. Carter finished first in the primary by a fairly wide margin with 36% of the vote. With ties to state politics, a background in pharmaceuticals, (which has yielded heavy contributions in the past) and a strong conservative record, Carter profiles as a classic ‘establishment’ candidate along the lines of Kingston, who is primed to continue his political ascent.
Bob Johnson is certainly the underdog in this race, but he may be the candidate picking up momentum, (and potentially some out of state cash). Leading into the primary Johnson had a noteworthy gaffe in which he said, “Now this is going to sound outrageous, I’d rather see another terrorist attack, truly I would, than to give up my liberty as an American citizen”. What affront to liberty was Dr. Johnson referring to? It wasn’t drone attacks on American citizens or the NSA spying on our emails, but the dreaded TSA and its annoying habit of making people go through security. Well, he was right about one thing, it did sound outrageous, and the backlash was fairly severe for a Congressional primary in South Georgia. Most onlookers, (myself included) wrote him off completely, expecting the more well known John McCallum to be the one who would face Carter in July. However Johnson bounced back, edging ahead of McCallum in the primary to move on to the runoff. Johnson features a military background, (always a big plus in GOP primaries) and is currently a surgeon making his home Savannah. He is the yin to Carter’s yang, the political ‘outsider’ who promises to shake up D.C., (not that anyone doesn’t promise to shake up D.C. at this point, but you get the picture).
The two candidates are on roughly equal footing in terms of cash on hand, with Carter reporting $461,000 in the April quarterly report and Johnson reporting $400,000. Carter spent more in the first leg of the primary, and I’d assume he has a more fleshed out campaign operation with his political history. Johnson though, has picked up some big endorsements since the first vote, which is what may make this race one to watch.
Support from the Senate Conservatives Fund and FreedomWorks will help with fundraising, but the potential gamechanger comes from the conservative advocacy group Club for Growth. The Club recently poured $500,000 into advertising for Idaho Congressional candidate Bryan Smith, who was defeated by incumbent Mike Simpson in May. Simpson, though winning fairly easily, had to spend over a million dollars and was backed up by another $4 million from allies such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The race was another of the classic Tea Party vs. the establishment matchups, with Smith attacking Simpson for being controlled by special interests. It remains to be seen whether The Club for Growth will be willing to spend as heavily on this race, but it claims that it will do ‘everything necessary’ to help Johnson get elected.
There is little less than a month and a half before the vote, but the race has a long way to go in terms of establishing itself. Carter has the name recognition and polling lead, but a special interest surge coming to the aid of Johnson could tighten things up in a hurry. From here though, the advantage still lies with the State Senator. As we saw in the Senate primary, South Georgia voters are fiercely loyal to their elected officials, and a high turnout on July 22nd should favor Carter.
