If polls are a snapshot in time, then the time may not be ripe for a wholly accurate polling assessment of the governor’s race. Georgia’s political community might do well to keep that in mind as it views a new poll released Thursday by WSB-TV/Landmark polling that shows Democrat Jason Carter with a stunning 49 percent to 41 percent lead over incumbent Republican Gov. Nathan Deal.
The poll is likely spot-on, or close to it, as far as it goes. Landmark does commendable work, and in fact polls a good deal for Republicans, so there’s no reason to suspect this latest survey is a push poll. (It was our own InsiderAdvantage polling in March that first showed Jason Carter might have a legitimate shot at winning the Governor’s Mansion, so we’re the last ones to dismiss polls that show Carter leading.)
But it’s probably wise to consider the timing of the poll – just two days after a report that offered more allegations that the governor’s office tried to stifle an ethics investigation on Deal by attempting to intimidate a key state ethics official.
The new charges got banner headlines in much state media. It’s hard not to conclude that the story is what has catapulted Carter into a substantial lead. At the same time, such a drastic change in polling results in such a short time usually doesn’t happen until paid TV and other media ads advertise and spin what’s going on.
The question is whether Carter can turn this quick bump in polling numbers into a durable lead. And the answer lies less in the detailed circumstances of an ethics investigation that the public little understands, and more in how – and when – the Carter and the Deal campaigns spin the whole affair.
Which side will do the best job of translating the Deal ethics investigation into the kind of bumper-sticker logic that can be made into media ads that will sway voters? And which side will come out of the gate with the fastest response, defining the opponent before the opponent can define him?
This may be especially true for women voters. It’s an adage among seasoned campaigners and pollsters – even though it’s seldom said out loud – that women are more easily swayed than men by whatever campaign ad they’ve seen last, or whatever news story just broke.
The Landmark poll offers evidence for this: While Deal still holds a nine-point lead among men, he trails Carter two-to-one among women. Carter already led among women before the latest ethics story surfaced, but that lead has now spiked. Women have been swayed against Deal by the ethics charges more than men have. And women have 55 percent of the votes. They will be – or should be – the main target audience for the Carter (and Deal) ethics ads that almost surely are soon coming.
Another key finding of the poll: Independents are split 38 percent to 38 percent between Carter and Deal. Said InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery, “From my experience, the independent vote would need to be more than even to put Carter in such a large lead. That said, I do believe that it is likely Jason Carter has a lead right now. The real issue, as I keep saying over and over, is whether Carter, using the Libertarian vote as a wedge, can keep Deal under 50 percent plus one vote, as is needed to put this into a runoff. If Deal is truly around the 41 percent level now, and I personally believe he’s a bit higher, then how does he get to 50 percent plus another one vote? Because I doubt, unless the entire roof caves in on him (Deal) that Jason (Carter) gets to 50 percent plus one in the November contest.”
Towery added: “If a runoff comes anywhere close to the Christmas holidays, then yes, it’s problematic for Republicans, given that the GOP voter tends to be caught up in early Christmas social activities. But then again, most General Election runoffs in recent years have gone to Republicans, starting with Paul Coverdell and as recently as Saxby Chambliss’s last victory. So who knows!”
The Landmark Communications poll was conducted July 15. It has a margin of error of plus or minus four percent.
