Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jason Carter keeps gaining momentum in his bid to defeat GOP incumbent Nathan Deal, political observers say.
A July 15 Landmark Communications poll showed Carter with a 7-point lead over Deal, 48.7 percent to 41.3. That poll was the first since disclosure of a memo alleging Deal staffers sought to influence an ethics case.
Carter, 38, a state senator and the grandson of former President and Gov. Jimmy Carter, “is very ambitious – he’s got his eye on the race,” Emory University political scientist Merle Black said. Black said the race is “very very competitive” and that Carter “is in much better shape than anybody would have thought a year ago.”
With approval ratings in the mid to low 40s, Deal “appears a very weak incumbent,” Black said.
Deal’s difficulties result from “a combination of things,” Black said. He cited changes in the state’s health care system in which teachers and state employees felt they had fewer choices. “They didn’t like it at all,” Black said. Even before the newest ethics problems, Deal “left Congress under a cloud,” he said.”Those issues have been out there in a way.
“There’s a whole set of issues where the governor is now on the defensive,” Black said. “Jason, an attorney, is a very, very aggressive opponent in a way than Michelle Nunn hasn’t been.”
While a GOP complaint alleges that Carter held an illegal out-of-state fund-raiser featuring his grandfather during the legislative session, Carter holds the edge on ethics issues.
His grandfather’s political legacy will also be an asset, Black said, despite a recent New York Times article that questioned whether Jimmy Carter’s involvement in the campaign is positive.
Despite criticism of Carter’s presidency, “for a lot of Georgians, Jimmy Carter is still a very positive figure, especially for attracting Democrat votes,” Black said.
The Times article made a big deal about Jason Nunn reportedly rejecting his grandfather’s offer to make a campaign appearance with him. Black said that was a wise decision because “Jimmy Carter puts Jason in the shade – the attention goes to him.”
While Black sees Democratic Senate candidate Michelle Nunn as similarly benefiting from her father, former U.S. Sen. Sam Nunn, Black said he doesn’t see the political legacies playing a decisive role in either campaign.
Jimmy Carter’s political base in Americus will help his grandson overcome one liability – Jason Carter’s a resident of Decatur in in-town Atlanta. The recognizable Carter name will help Jason Carter overcome his relatively small amount of political experience.
The Georgia economy remains the main driver of the race. While economic reports show the U.S. economy’s recovery progressing, Georgia still lags the nation in unemployment, and Carter keeps hitting Deal on jobs. For his part, Deal cites how much Georgia’s economy has improved. But not enough, Carter counters.
Education is another dueling point, with Carter criticizing Deal for cuts in school funding and Deal running ads blasting Carter for voting against his latest budget, which included a boost for schools.
As with the U.S. Senate race, the governor’s race will hinge on the Democrats’ success in attracting voters who consider themselves independent rather than Democrats or Republicans.
Beginning with Sonny Perdue’s upset win over incumbent Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes in 2002, the GOP has won the battle for independents. Deal also defeated Barnes to win his first term in office.
While expressing support for Democratic issues such as Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act, Carter has sought to appeal to rural and suburban voters. He supported
the state’s law allowing firearms to be carried into bars and churches and, as The New York Times reported, opposes his grandfather’s stand to ban the death penalty.
With the state Legislature solidly in Republican control, Georgia voters might be ready to elect a Democrat for political balance. Carter would have to show flexibility to gain legislative approval of his policies. On the other hand, a Carter win could bring political deadlock, as in Washington.
The GOP’s hold over the governor’s chair is not as deeply rooted as its Senate domination. At least the GOP has a longer history of U.S. Senators – Mack Mattingly was the first Georgia Republican since Reconstruction days to win a Senate seat, beating Herman Talmdage in 1981.
Jason Carter’s signs look good. Whether voter approval of him proves to be a mere summer romance will be tested come November.
