The following story is from our sister site www.SouthernPoliticalReport.com
It’s change vs. the status quo in the Kentucky U.S. Senate race. But the agent of change is five-term incumbent Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell, while the symbol of the same-old same-old is 35-year-old Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes. That’s according to McConnell, of course. And his take on this nip-and-tuck race shows just home topsy-turvy things have gotten in the Blue Grass state.
The consensus among polls is that McConnell has a narrow edge, if any. But neither candidate has been able to reach 50 percent, and there are signs that there are few voters who haven’t yet made up their minds. That’s understandable in a state where many public buildings and facilities are named after McConnell. The man is an institution here, and most people either like or dislike him strongly.
McConnell openly advertises that Kentuckians should vote for him because he’s in line to become Senate majority leader if he is reelected and the GOP wins majority control of that chamber. That would greatly benefit the state, he says.
But McConnell has two factors potentially working against him. The first is money. While he has raised more money than he ever has ($3.1 million in the last reporting period), Grimes has raised more ($4 million). Unlike many times in the past, McConnell will be unable to simply carpet-bomb his opponent with gads more money than they have. Some observers say this could become the costliest U.S. Senate election in American history.
Second, a Senate career that has earned McConnell a reputation as a pragmatist and a compromiser has turned many ideological Republicans in the state against him. Polls show that about 20 percent of GOP voters don’t support him. This could translate into more votes for Libertarian David Patterson, or it might mean many GOP voters stay at home on Election Day. There is no runoff in this race. Who gets the most votes on Nov. 4 wins.
On almost every issue, McConnell drops the names ‘Barack Obama’ and ‘Harry Reid’ in connection with Grimes. He says as majority leader he would use the appropriations process to shackle the president and his political aims. (Thus, he says, he’s the agent of change, not Grimes.)
Grimes is the Kentucky secretary of state and a political legacy of sorts. Her father is Jerry Lundergan, a former state Democratic chairman and state representative. He is considered a political power broker in Kentucky. Grimes bested her Republican opponent for secretary of state in 2012 by winning over 60 percent of the vote statewide.
She says McConnell can no longer remit federal budget largesse to the home state because the age of earmarks is over. McConnell, 72, has brought hundreds of millions of dollars to Kentucky in his 30 years in the Senate.
The race has reached that cynical stage in which ‘issues other than the issues’ are grabbing headlines. The Democrats have filed a new ethics complaint against McConnell, and the McConnell campaign has countered with a complaint to the Federal Elections Commission about Grimes. (It seems her father’s company rented a touring bus to his daughter’s campaign at a discount – possibly constituting an illegal gift.) Such is politics when there are few votes left to divide up.
The candidates will debate at least once, on Oct. 13. McConnell is the one who has been dragged kicking and screaming into a debate. This is odd, given that when Grimes and McConnell appeared together at a state Farm Bureau event, McConnell was the far more relaxed and polished of the two.
Grimes is scouring for more votes mainly among young people and women. When McConnell recently criticized her on an issue apparently unrelated to gender, Grimes said, “Women aren’t supposed to just be seen, we will be heard.”
Another Grimes move has been to host Bill Clinton at a recent fundraiser. This served both to boost her own modest name ID and to create a Democratic identity independent of President Obama.
A McConnell loss would be a blow to the national GOP. The Republicans would likely find themselves in a Senate leadership squabble. Another tussle between ‘establishment’ and ‘tea party’ Republicans is not what the party needs heading into the 2016 presidential campaign.
The McConnell-Grimes race may boil down to two things:
- Will Obama’s ‘war on coal’ condemn Grimes to defeat by losing her too many votes in the critical swing district of the 5th Congressional District, a coal region?
- Will McConnell go down because disgruntled Republican voters either vote for the Libertarian or just stay home from the polls?
