The Georgia U.S. Senate race might not be decided until after New Year’s Day, and there’s a strong possibility that Senate control could ride on the outcome.
If neither Democrat Michelle Nunn nor Republican David Perdue gains a majority of votes in the Nov. 4 general election, a runoff will be held on Jan. 6, 2015, following a nine-week campaign. Such a runoff stands a good chance of determining which party controls the Senate.
“We’ll be at the center of the political universe for nine weeks,” said UGA political science professor Charles S. Bullock III. “We’ll have attack ads on Christmas Day. That’s the Christmas spirit.”
If a Georgia runoff occurs, the winner won’t take office until after the 114th Congress has convened. With other U.S. Senators seated, the Georgia race could tip the balance to either the Democrats or Republicans.
When Congress returns on Jan. 3, the Democrats in one possible scenario might already hold 49 of the Senate’s 100 seats. In that case, a Nunn victory would keep Democrats in control, with Vice President Joe Biden voting for the party in case of a tie. A Perdue win would give the Republicans the edge with 51 seats.
If a Georgia runoff holds the balance, “both sides will be pouring money in, the parties and super PACs,” Bullock said.“The TV will be covered up with ads.”
Unlike other states, Georgia requires a winning candidate to take more than 50 percent of the vote, making a runoff necessary if a general election majority is not reached.
Louisiana, where all candidates run together in the general election, is the only other state that possibly could have a runoff, scheduled for Dec. 6. Incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu likely will face a runoff against Republican Bill Cassidy.
The late Georgia runoff date is the result of a 2013 Department of Justice ruling to allow more time to count overseas ballots. That’s only for federal elections: If the Georgia governor’s race between Democrat Jason Carter and GOP incumbent Nathan Deal goes into a runoff, the date will be Dec. 2. Georgia could thus have two runoffs within a little more than a month.
Bullock pointed out another result from the new year’s runoff date. Neither Nunn nor Perdue is an incumbent, in fact neither has ever held elected office, and whoever wins “would be 100 out of 100 in terms of seniority,” Bullock said, having to be sworn in after every other senator.
Recent polls show neither Nunn nor Perdue with 50 percent of the vote. A recent Landmark Communications poll conducted for WSB-TV showed Nunn at 47 percent and Perdue at 40 percent, with Libertarian Amanda Swafford at 3 percent and 10 percent undecided. Other polls have shown Perdue in the lead. While a swing of independents to either candidate could mean victory, Swafford’s strength makes a runoff likely.
Perdue, would be favored in a runoff, if past results hold true.
“Historically, every statewide runoff Republicans have won,”Bullock said. “It doesn’t matter if they finish first or second in the general election. Republicans do a better job of getting voters to come back to the polls.”
In the 2008 general election, GOP incumbent Sen. Saxby Chambliss garnered 49.8 percent of the vote to Jim Martin’s 46.8 percent. But turnout dropped by 43 percent in the runoff, leading Chambliss to a 57 to 43 percent win, according to the Democratic web site Daily Kos. Nunn and Perdue are seeking to fill Chambliss’ seat.
“The share of African-American voters shrunk considerably from the general election to the runoff,” Daily Kos surmised. Numbers cruncher Nate Silver speculated the fewer black voters cost Martin a net of about 3 to 9 points, Daily Kos said.
In 1992, Democrat incumbent Wyche Fowler beat Republican Paul Coverdell by 30,000 votes in the general election, then lost to Coverdell by 20,000 in the runoff, according to Wikipedia. Libertarian Jim Hudson garnered 3 percent of the general election vote.
If Nunn in the Nov. 4 election advances to a runoff, she’ll have to inspire another strong turnout Jan 6. During the long campaign, voters’ attention will be diverted by the holiday season. Election fatigue and New Year blahs will take a toll. A paralyzing ice storm is always possible. But excitement could be revived if Senate control hangs in the balance, and the whole world is watching.
