See InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery break down the latest poll on FOX 7 Austin.

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A survey of 504 likely Texas Republican presidential primary voters shows Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, businessman Donald Trump, and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush in a three-way statistical dead heat if the Texas primary were held today. The telephone and mobile device survey was conducted August 2-3 2015 among registered voters. The poll is weighted for age, race, and gender and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3% with a confidence level of 95%.

The results:

Ted Cruz: 20%

Donald Trump: 19%

Jeb Bush: 17%

Ben Carson: 11%

Scott Walker: 7%

Mike Huckabee: 4%

John Kasich: 4%

Bobby Jindal: 3%

Chris Christie: 2%

Carly Fiorina: 2%

Rand Paul: 2%

Rick Perry: 2%

Marco Rubio: 2%

Lindsey Graham: 1%

George Pataki and Rick Santorum: 0%

Other: 2%

Undecided: 2%


Analysis from pollster/columnist Matt Towery of InsiderAdvantage/Creators Syndicate/FOX5 Atlanta:


“OpinionSavvy conducted this poll with our organization in numerous southern states. In most of those states Donald Trump was alone at the top, while in Florida he shared first place with former Governor Bush. But in Texas, home state candidate Sen. Ted Cruz was fractionally ahead in a statistically tied battle with Trump and Bush for first place. Bush and Trump did best with younger respondents and Hispanic/Latino voters. Cruz and Trump were stronger among older voters as opposed to Bush. It should be added that while Trump has a ‘gender gap’ in several states that we polled (men supporting him more than women), that is not the case in Texas. In fact, Bush has the greater gender gap. He has more male support than female in Texas.”

“The next closest candidate was Dr. Ben Carson at 11%. Carson runs strongest among the ‘second tier’ of candidates in many of the polls we conducted in Southern states over the past week. Of interest, former Texas Governor Rick Perry, another home state candidate, polled poorly in this survey, at only 2%. This may reflect a belief among some in Texas that Perry’s candidacy is less serious than the effort he staged in 2012.”

“Of course anything can change over time, but Texas is the one state where a majority of the voters were with just a few candidates. This points to the state’s importance in the so-called ‘SEC Primary’ to be held in numerous states in the southeast and southwest on the same day in early March 2016.”


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