While it may appear that my every day is occupied staring out at the sailboats from my home in Saint Petersburg, I’m actually still in Atlanta a great deal of the time as I prepare to cover my last election cycle and continue to give “senior” advice to those who seek it at Hall, Booth, Smith (as well as to my colleagues at InsiderAdvantage). Phil Kent has everything moving well at IA which does give me the opportunity to spend a few days a month looking at the sun and the sea. And sometimes having more physical distance makes things a bit clearer.
Here’s my take on the polls and politics of the 2016 Georgia General Assembly.
* The biggest issue of the session is casino gambling and I give it a much greater chance of passage than do many pundits. My view remains that while Governor Deal may be philosophically opposed to it, he and his crew have known about this effort for years and will be unlikely to stop what appears to be a popular concept, at least based on the AJC statewide poll results. The governor has nothing to do with its passage as a referendum (which must be placed on a General Election ballot). Where he has plenty say is in the enabling legislation. Deal could rightfully say he opposes the referendum but the will of the people cannot be thwarted. That’s where the potential funds for education (such as the HOPE Scholarship) would propel this whole concept towards reality. Does anyone believe that virtually every lobbying and governmental affairs firm in the state (mine excluded) has been put on retainer to push these bills if in fact the governor is determined to kill it off? These firms (and those not involved) raised most of Deal’s re-election funds. My guess is it passes after a lot of talk and clamor. We will poll this for Fox 5 once the fight starts and see where things stand. I know it seems dead, but like the lottery years earlier, things “happen” to come to pass. This has much greater odds than the pundits are giving it.
* Religious Freedom Bill. The percentage of voters who favor it slips to below 50% in the AJC poll once respondents are given a scenario of it being used as a way to discriminate against LGBT Georgians. Well, if you think the numbers drop there, just see what happens when you ask respondents how they feel about the legislation’s “rights” extending to those of the Islamic faith! We did last year for Fox 5 and support melted away. My guess is a heavy dose of anti-discrimination language will have to be added to get this thing through; or legislators will move to Speaker Ralston’s pastor-based alternative. It has too much GOP support in polls not to likely make it through in some form. But if I were running a campaign (which I don’t anymore) in a GOP primary I would bombard any incumbent with messages that they “expanded the rights of those of the Islamic faith.” While in my mind it doesn’t matter a bit I’m guessing that would be a hard one to answer and a potential crusher at the polls. And you can’t expand rights for Christians without including all religions, hence the problem in the hands of a crafty opponent with money.
* Justice Reform. Governor Deal’s proposed reforms to help lessen the crazy “throw them in jail forever” laws I helped make law in the early 1990s will pass and for good reason! First offenders need the chance to re-enter society without a permanent scar.
* Medical Marijuana. Allen Peake is pushing the envelope, but he has public opinion on his side. The “victory” of allowing limited use of the liquid form which passed last year, found immediate roadblocks due to regulations restricting the ability to carry substances into the state. Again Governor Deal is said to have concerns, likely propelled by state law enforcement and judicial powers. But the polls are overwhelming. My guess is that Deal, or those very close to him, might have political goals that go beyond the governor’s current and final term as governor. That means we can likely look for some additional movement on the medical marijuana front.
* If Republicans want some free advice—coming from a GOP legislator of a different era—the best thing they could do is to quit regulating everything that isn’t nailed to the ground. Sadly, the GOP takeover has been accompanied by a proliferation of laws designed to regulate virtually every aspect of our lives. Open government, transparency, and less government regulation were the mantra of the GOP before it took control of government (both statewide and in many Georgia cities and counties) in recent years. And they wonder why Donald Trump is leading in the polls by a mile for the GOP presidential nomination in this state!
We will be watching the 2016 General Assembly with great interest. Best of luck to all involved.
P.S. If you haven’t purchased a copy of my new book Newsvesting, you might consider doing so. My picks for last year in the book had an over 30% return and my choices for ’16 were rising even as the market melted down last week. Become a “Newsvestor” and join me in the fun and profits just click below: http://www.amazon.com/Newsvesting-Matt-Towery/dp/1929619618/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1452485196&sr=8-1&keywords=newsvesting
