A new FOX5 Atlanta WAGA-TV/Opinion Savvy poll of 571 registered likely voters in Georgia shows Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump with a four point lead over Democrat opponent Hillary Clinton. The survey conducted October 19-20 has a margin of error of 4.1%. The same survey shows Sen. Johnny Isakson leading Jim Barksdale by 51% to 42% in the Georgia U.S. Senate contest. Libertarian Allen Buckley is at 3% and 4% is undecided. (Opinion Savvy was rated the third most accurate pollster in the nation by Bloomberg News earlier this year.)
The results:
Trump: 50%
Clinton: 46%
Johnson: 3%
Undecided: 1%
FOX5 Political Analyst Matt Towery says:
“For months Georgia and Florida have dovetailed in their results, but we are starting to see that change. The Opinion Savvy poll in Florida released today for FOX13 Tampa Bay and FOX 35 Orlando shows Clinton ahead by about the same margin as Trump enjoys in Georgia. The simple reason for this is the barrage of negative ads that are being aired against Trump in Florida versus the lack of such ads in Georgia. Trump must answer those attacks with more ads to hope to win Florida, and Clinton must take to the airwaves to hope to pull off an upset in Georgia. I believe the Libertarian vote in other polls is too high and these numbers are more reflective of what we will see on Election Day.”
“Let me stress that all polls this year are struggling to determine the actual turnout levels for various demographic groups,” Towery says. “And other polls don’t even try and often overweight one party over the other. This is the first time in my career that I do not believe that the polls can give us a really accurate prediction of how any state will vote. I say that recognizing that Opinion Savvy, our pollster, is one of the best this season.
