It’s hard to remember a more high-profile Congressional special election in Georgia, and it’s now quite literally impossible to remember one that’s had more money poured into it.
Political neophyte Jon Ossoff, who at 30 years of age would become the youngest member of Congress, has raised a stunning $8.3 million in the first quarter of 2017 in his attempt to score a Democratic upset in Georgia’s 6th District. That total dwarfs that of any Congressional campaign in 2016, when New York’s Zephyr Teachout (D), (yes that’s a real name) raised $1.6 million in the third quarter before losing handily to Republican John Faso.
Ossof’s haul has paid dividends, giving him a commanding lead in every poll on the race, with looming question not whether he will make it to the runoff, but whether he can get that 50%+1 to avoid a runoff entirely. With numbers in the low 40’s and a barrage of ads from Republican candidates and groups, that seems unlikely. Also unlikely are his chances to actually win a runoff, where experts predict a Republican, whomever it winds up being, would have a big edge in the red-leaning district.
But even in that runoff there’s no way Ossoff will go down without a fight. Boasting a war chest 17 times larger than that of an average candidate in a competitive Congressional District, he will continue getting support from a national Democratic machine that views the race as a referendum on the early days of a Donald Trump presidency and an early look at the 2018 midterms where the party hopes to regain seats.
The district may lean right, but when Republican front-runner Karen Handel raises just $430,000 in the quarter compared to Ossoff’s $8.3 million, this runoff may be tougher than the GOP thinks.
Expect outside Republican groups such as the Congressional Leadership Fund, who has already spent millions attacking Ossoff, to dive in further behind whichever Republican makes the runoff. Expect too for Georgia’s big Republican donors to rally behind their candidate, who will emerge bloodied and nearly broke on April 19th before the two month sprint until the runoff election. Already the fact that a staggering 95% of Ossoff’s donations have come from out of the state is drawing attention, and expect the GOP’s line of attack to focus more on that and less on the head-scratching ‘Star Wars’ ads that tried and failed to paint the young Democrat as inexperienced.
For now though, the Republican candidates must shift their focus away from Ossoff and towards one another. A race that has thus far stayed relatively civil between the GOP field will likely get a little muddier in the race’s final week, with mailers and robo-calls attacking one candidate or another already coming out.
Expect a long final week leading up to a runoff that will have all of America playing close attention.
