A new poll from Opinion Savvy for Fox 5 Atlanta shows Lt. Governor Casey Cagle leading the GOP primary for governor, with Secretary of State Brian Kemp now moving into second followed by former state Senator Hunter Hill and businessman Clay Tippins. On the Democratic side former state Rep. Stacey Abrams has opened up a commanding lead over fellow former Rep. Stacey Evans. The poll, conducted this week via landline and mobile phone, has a 4.3% margin of error with a 95% confidence rating. Click the links for full results and crosstabs for the GOP and Democrats.
Republican Primary:
Cagle: 31%
Kemp: 20%
Hill: 14%
Tippins: 12%
Williams: 5%
Other: 4%
Undecided: 15%
Cagle leading the pack is no surprise. The real battle is for second and a spot in the runoff. Kemp’s courting of rural voters seems to be paying off, with a pair of hard hitting campaign ads that drew the ire of mainstream media – a very good thing to many Republican voters. Hill and Tippins meanwhile have been painting themselves as the ‘anti-Cagle’ candidates, and with similar backgrounds as military vets boasting a pro-business and anti-career politician platform, they may be siphoning off enough of one another’s votes to keep both out of the runoff.
InsiderAdvantage CEO Phil Kent gives this analysis on the results: “Casey Cagle is still the front-runner in the race, but his numbers have dropped from other polling in recent weeks. Brian Kemp has experienced a significant surge, in no small measure due to saturating the TV airwaves with ads. Hunter Hill, in third place, still has a chance to get into the number two spot depending on last minute strategy. The Clay Tippins campaign will have to ‘throw a hail mary’ before Tuesday to be competitive. Michael Williams is gamely pressing on, although it is odd to me why he did not go on statewide television much earlier.”
With just 15% of Republican voters left undecided, there isn’t a ton of room to maneuver as the candidates jostle for position before next Tuesday’s vote.
Democratic Primary:
Abrams: 58%
Evans: 19%
Undecided: 23%
On the Democratic side it looks like Abrams’ big money and big endorsements are finally paying dividends as she has opened up a massive lead over Cobb County attorney Evans. While nearly a quarter of Dem voters remain undecided, it would be a shock to see much drama unfold on election day.
Says Kent on the Democrats’ numbers: “Democrat gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams appears to have a lock on this primary, thanks to significant African American support among the party base. Opponent Stacey Evans, however, is going to have to generate more liberal and independent white votes along with having a significant number of undecideds break her way. But I believe she’s going to fall short.”
Opinion Savvy also polled the battle for the nominations for Lt. Governor, where a pair of much more low-profile races have resulted in tighter contests that could break in any number of ways next week. On the Republican side former state Rep. Geoff Duncan and former state Sens. Rick Jeffares and David Shafer all sit within the 4.3% margin of error, while for the Democrats Sarah Riggs Amico leads Triana Arnold James.
Republican Primary:
Shafer: 23%
Duncan: 19%
Jeffares: 17%
Undecided: 40%
Shafer, the former President Pro Tempore of the Senate, maintains a small lead over his opponents, but with a whopping 40% of Republican voters undecided it is clear that a lack of name recognition could make this race very interesting. A strong get out the vote effort will be key as the three candidates seek to secure the top two positions for a race that will undoubtedly, like the governor’s contest, head to a runoff.
Democratic Primary:
Amico: 41%
James: 21%
Undecided: 38%
For the Democrats it appears that Amico is on pace to get the nod over James, but again a high number of undecided voters and a lack of name recognition could see the race tighten up.
