Everyone pretty much knew it. The Trump endorsement, the Pence visit – all the momentum had swung to the Kemp campaign and it was looking bleak for Team Cagle. Even Casey Cagle himself was lamenting some of the campaign, telling media he wished he had done more to talk about his childhood and background. By the night of the election party, some Cagle supporters were wondering if it would be an early night. Of interest was the fact that there was not a tv in sight displaying results. Indeed it was an early night.
Normally, Georgia election night watchers are up late into the evening hitting refresh on results websites or waiting for pages to reload. By 8:30 on Tuesday, Cagle had called Brian Kemp and conceded the race. A few minutes later, Cagle was addressing his supporters at the Marriott in northeast Atlanta.
Cagle noted that he didn’t get into the race for a job or a title. He’s proud of his 12 years as lieutenant governor and all that the state has accomplished in that time. It was a somber speech but Cagle pledged that he would give his full, undivided support to Brian Kemp. Georgia Republicans are holding a unity rally on Thursday and Cagle will be there. Most of the audience in the room were dedicated Republicans and are also likely to support Kemp in November.
At least one, though, will not be attending the rally on Thursday. Senator Renee Unterman (R-45 Buford), who happens to be from the same county that the rally will be in, will not be able to make it. A longtime Cagle ally and one of the co-chairs of Women for Cagle, Unterman has been outspoken in her opposition to Kemp and at times the rhetoric got quite heated.
She said it was a shame that “you’ve got these kingmakers in D.C., Ayers, the Perdues, walking across the earth.” Asked if she would be going to the rally, she gave a quick “No” and talked about working to unify the state may be more important that uniting the GOP. She is concerned about the level of acrimony between the northern and southern parts of the state, mentioning the secession question that popped up on a ballot in Pierce County – where approximately 25% of voters would prefer the counties south of Macon to form the 51st state.
The Cagle campaign had been hobbled by the Clay Tippins’ recording for weeks. Kemp mentioned it as often as possible on the campaign trail and during the debates. And there was really no explaining it. What Cagle admitted to is not necessarily that unusual in politics but to hear the actual explanation of the sausage-making on tape was likely jarring to many voters. Cagle could never really get out from under the tape and it left the door open for a barnstorming Kemp. President Trump, likely getting some assistance from a Perdue or Ayers, lent his endorsement and it was effectively over. Without the tape, the race may not have been as close and perhaps that endorsement doesn’t happen. Clay Tippins may have not seen much success as a governor candidate but his actions have likely completely changed Georgia history.
Some pundits have discussed the frequent success of 2nd place primary finishers in runoffs, wherein supporters of those who didn’t make the runoff consolidate behind the 1st place finisher. Geoffrey Skelley, the associate editor of Larry Sabato’s “Crystal Ball” at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, compiled some data and found that the primary leader with no incumbents in the runoff went on to win 65% of the time (the first runoff being in 1898). There have been 127 non-incumbent governor runoffs and the 1st-place finisher won 83 times. The Cagle loss is not a total outlier but it is a little unusual.
Brad Carver, a Republican activist and lawyer for Hall Booth Smith, discussed the next steps for Cagle supporters. “It was a tough campaign but we’ll come together and pull it out in November.” He referenced the 11th commandment, a statement from Ronald Reagan about not speaking ill of any fellow Republican, and noted that Donald Trump ran down – in fairly vicious fashion sometimes – 16 other Republican candidates in the 2016 election and, by November, 89% of Republicans supported the eventual president.
Georgia Republicans will certainly spend the next few months doing their best to make Stacey Abrams out as another Hillary Clinton.
