Will Atlanta voters watch the mayoral race vote tallies late into the night? Probably not. With 15 candidates in today’s election, and with two strong candidates leading the pack and Georgia’s 50 percent plus one election law, conventional wisdom suggests a runoff.
What’s interesting isn’t who is going to win. What’s interesting is why this election cycle has been so strange. It has been short, the incumbent opted not to run for a second term (the first time since World War II), voter turnout has been low, undecided voters seem to be everywhere and, as former Atlanta City Council president Ceasar Mitchell put it, “the typical binary choice” is absent.
Mitchell, also a former mayoral candidate, explained that a “binary choice usually delivered to the electorate on a silver platter via media messaging and campaign propaganda” doesn’t exist.
What was expected to be a race between an incumbent mayor and a sitting City Council president suddenly, and late in the campaign calendar, became an open seat on May 6 when the incumbent announced she would not be seeking a second term. Mitchell underscores that now “it is not a simple choice between a white or black candidate, a Democrat or Republican-ish character, a male or female favorite, or Northside versus Southwest.”
Candidates entering the race after May 6 simply may not have had a chance to differentiate themselves from Felicia Moore, the only candidate already in the race, and Kasim Reed, the only candidate who has already been mayor. Furthermore, Reed may not have had a chance to distinguish himself from Moore to draw that distinct line creating a binary choice.
Edward Lindsey, a former state lawmaker representing part of Atlanta, thinks some voters were just waiting for the runoff knowing there would be a runoff, while some voters in the Buckhead section might be sitting out this race waiting for Buckhead City to form.
Then again, maybe we need to rethink how we look at voter turnout. In 2017, there were 23,221 total early votes and accepted mail-in ballots. This year, there are 37,980. If you consider how many people are eligible to vote in Atlanta, sure this is low voter turnout. However, if you consider over 14,000 more Atlanta voters have already voted compared to 2017, by some standards— pathetic though they may be— voter turnout might not be that low.
“Early voting in 2017 made up about only 26 percent of the vote in 2017, while 74 percent voted on election day.” underscored Eamon Keegan, a consultant with New Prospect Strategies. Keegan recommends really looking at voter trends especially when analyzing municipal race voter turnout.
Fred Hicks, another metro Atlanta political consultant, notes “voters are not feeling compelled.” He also mentioned “this election is taking place in a valley between two peak elections— the 2020 federal and the 2022 statewide.” He emphasizes, “fatigue from the last election and eager anticipation for the next.”
Mitchell, Lindsey, Keegan and Hicks agree we’ll likely be talking about this race for the next 30 days until the runoff election on Tuesday, November 30.
Michelle Carver of Atlanta writes for InsiderAdvantage Georgia
