This survey was conducted March 31-April 1 involving 550 likely GOP Primary/Caucus voters. It is weighted for age, race, and gender. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. Crosstabs can be found HERE.
The Results:
QUESTION: If you were voting today to choose the next Republican nominee for president, for whom would you vote?
- Donald Trump: 57%
- Ron DeSantis: 24%
- Nikki Haley: 5%
- Mike Pence: 4%
- Chris Christie: 2%
- Kristi Noem: 1%
- Mike Pompeo: 1%
- Vivek Ramaswamy: 1%
- Chris Sununu: 1%
- Tim Scott: 0%
- Glenn Youngkin: 0%
- Someone else: 0%
- Undecided/No Opinion: 4%
Analysis by IA co-founder Matt Towery:
“Former President Trump appears to have received a “post-indictment” bump in this survey. The latest Fox News survey conducted just before the indictment in New York was announced showed Trump leading other potential rivals at 54 percent. His closest potential rival, Ron DeSantis, remained at the same percentage as the Fox News survey (24 percent). Looking at the crosstabs, the most important shift in demographics in recent months is that of voters over the age of 65. This demographic shifted away from Trump in 2020 and away from many of the candidates he endorsed in 2022. But older voters are now as supportive of Trump as other age groups. The answer as to why that might be could possibly be found in our next question.”
QUESTION: Has the indictment of Donald Trump by Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg made you more or less supportive of Donald Trump?
- More Supportive: 55%
- No Change: 3%
- Less Supportive: 14%
- No Opinion/Undecided: 1%
Analysis by Matt Towery:
“Fifty-six percent of voters 65 and older said the indictment of Trump made them more supportive, in line with the other age groups. This is a huge shift for older Republicans over the past year. Equally of note is that female voters, who have traditionally been less supportive of Trump in past surveys, led male voters in saying that the indictment made them more supportive of the former president (56%-52%).
“Finally, the very low undecided level is basically a first for surveys conducted this far out from the primary season. It should be noted that potential future issues and revelations could turn these numbers upside down. But for the moment the GOP contest appears to be between just two candidates/potential candidates. And the indictment appears to have consolidated Trump’s support from the broader spectrum of all likely Republican primary/caucus voters.”
Finally, the survey asked:
QUESTION: Some in Congress argue that Democrat-controlled federal departments and agencies and some state and local agencies, such as district attorneys in large Democratically controlled cities, have actually become “weaponized” against Republicans and conservatives, creating a two-tiered system of justice. What is your opinion?
- Agree, they have been weaponized against Republicans and Conservatives: 79%
- Disagree, they have not been weaponized against Republicans and Conservatives: 14%
- No Opinion/ Undecided: 7%
About InsiderAdvantage: Ranked among the top three national pollsters for accuracy in the 2016,’18, and ‘20 election cycles in ranking by RealClearPolitics; Ranked among top two national pollsters for the ’20 presidential cycle; Ranked a “B” with a “Mean Reverted Bias” of +.02% (in favor of Democratic candidates) and a predictive +/- of + .02 by FiveThirtyEight.
InsiderAdvantage has polled news organizations as diverse as Politico, Newsmax, and Fox-owned and operated affiliates across the nation. With this survey InsiderAdvantage begins its 21st year of national opinion research.
