The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s controversial poll by the SRBI firm has especially blown up social media, with Georgia Democrats hailing its finding that their presidential candidate Hillary Clinton slightly leads Republican challenger Donald Trump in a state that hasn’t gone for a Democrat presidential candidate since 1992. Yet the poll’s crosstabs indicate there were more Democrat respondents, which critics say cast doubt on the findings.
Prominent political guru Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia cautions about putting credence in the poll. He and other national forecasters say Georgia remains a “likely Republican” state.
These views heavily rely on past history. In 2008, Democrat candidate Barack Obama spent more than $2 million in Georgia on television advertising and had more than 70 paid staffers here before pulling out that September. He ultimately lost the Peach State in November by 5 percentage points to U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. In 2012, Obama put in few resources and lost to Republican Mitt Romney by 8 points.
Donald Trump’s campaign sees little change here from 2012, noting that during the primary the New York businessman energized a sizable turnout of new GOP voters. “Sending money to the Democrat Party of Georgia to hire some staffers is about the only jobs Hillary will be creating in Georgia, but it will not pay off to be a good investment for her campaign,” says state campaign manager Brandon Phillips.
Former U.S. Rep. Jack Kingston, R-Savannah, is a vocal Trump supporter who knows the electorate well. “I’ll say this as somebody who has run statewide …I hope that Hillary Clinton spends a lot of time in Georgia and spends a lot of money because that will free up our resources to go to Pennsylvania, Florida and other states.”
Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed and other top Democrats see it differently as they urge the Clinton campaign to invest more resources here. “The campaign is signaling it’s shifting attention to Arizona and Georgia,” says state Rep. Calvin Smyre, D-Columbus. “I don’t want to be overly optimistic, but I’m happy that Georgia is getting the attention that it deserves.”
