April begins the serious time for numerous campaigns. Let’s see where they are and what to look for from the candidates.
Governor
It’s put up or shut up time for Nathan Deal’s two primary opponents. Deal is comfortably at the mid- or upper- 50% range in most polls. That means his opponents would have to put a major hurt on him with very expensive TV ads to even hope to push him into a runoff. Absent something unforeseen, Deal wins easily.
That said, his campaign needs to get into gear and use the primary season as a time to build Governor Deal’s favorable opinion ratings as high as they can.
Deal got a major gift from his likely Democratic opponent, Jason Carter. In the Georgia Senate, Carter voted for a gun bill that remains unpopular with many swing voters. Carter’s theme was set to be “Governor Deal and the Republicans can pass a gun bill, but would not pass a bill allowing liquid cannabis for children who suffer from seizures (or one to help treat kids with autism).”
That “guns or butter” theme is no longer available to Carter, who made his first major rookie mistake of the contest – and likely his biggest.
GOP U.S. Senate
It’s all about the money now. David Perdue seems like he is headed towards a runoff. One of his ads is by far the best this season. And it’s pretty clear he has the help of the seasoned group that helped his cousin Sonny Perdue win the governorship twice in Georgia.
What they have to watch out for is a rookie mistake by their man. Perdue is said to be less than friendly behind the scenes and apt to fly off the handle in public events when provoked. But that’s just what some political observers report. So far we’ve seen no evidence of those flaws, and if he keeps staying cool and collected, he will make it to the runoff.
Jack Kingston is working it hard and he has, based on most polls, moved into a solid second place. As I have noted in my TV broadcasts and on this website, his ads are too folksy for metro-Atlanta. But I expect an adjustment of that in the near future. If Kingston gains many more points, he will likely be impossible to catch and will join Perdue in the runoff.
There are some wildcards out there. Karen Handel is a pro and she knows how to hit hard. To make it to the runoff she needs to take on Kingston and Phil Gingrey. (Gingrey’s lack of funds and lack of presence on TV are rather shocking). She should target them as “good ole boy, do-nothing, big-spending Congressmen.” Expect her to make that move late in the campaign, and with a limited budget for television.
As for Gingrey, if he could muster one TV ad that is effectively tailored for metro-Atlanta, and if he could keep it airing until Election Day, he might be able to nudge Kingston out of second place should Handel not take flight.
Paul Broun has his voting base, and while it is solid, it’s not the huge Tea Party electorate of 2010 or 2012. He would have to find the cash to put up a major TV blitz to make it to the runoff. But if he were to make it, he could potentially pull off a big upset in July.
Right now it looks like this will be a Perdue-Kingston contest, which is bad news for Democrat Michelle Nunn. Either of these GOP candidates would likely blow Nunn’s doors off.
Why? Because while Georgia is not raging with Tea Party fervor these days, the state is still mostly conservative.
Hanging out with the likes of Joe Biden won’t cut it this year for Michelle Nunn against any opponent other than perhaps Broun or Gingrey.
Congress
April is when these races will start to take form. Voters don’t know any of these candidates in either of the two open GOP-dominated districts. But that’s usually the case. Those who get on TV first and stay on usually make it to a runoff. But it is far too early for any legitimate surveys in these races.
State Legislative Races
Are you kidding me? No one cares until the last three weeks.
In all of these elections, the most important thing to remember is that the general public has very little interest in politicians or politics. That means they don’t really follow this stuff until they are confronted with an impending election. The bigger the race (U.S. Senate), the earlier they will take note. But most politicians and pundits underestimate the percentage of voters who are undecided this far out, or who can’t tell you who their Congressman is or even much about their top state leaders. Truthfully, too many people don’t like politicians and they have their own lives to lead. Like Rhett Butler might say, “Frankly, they don’t give a damn.”
