For my first column with InsiderAdvantage, I will avoid adding to the wall-to-wall coverage of Georgia’s 6th District, by providing a brief analysis of the 2018 governor’s race. Although November 6, 2018 is still 511 days away, that hasn’t stopped a half-dozen Georgia politicians from announcing their decision to seek possession of the keys to the governor’s mansion.
The candidates on the Republican side so far include Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle, Secretary of State Brian Kemp, State Senator Hunter Hill, and State Senator Michael Williams. On the Democratic side, we have two Staceys – House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams and House Caucus Chair Stacey Evans.
Coming soon – Tharon Johnson analyzes the Jon Ossoff candidacy (candidate pictured with his former boss Rep. John Lewis)
The main challenge for Republican candidates will be defining themselves in the Age of Trump. Trump has fundamentally changed conservatism, which both establishment Republicans and grassroots conservatives have either begrudgingly or gleefully allowed him to do. At this point, most Republican politicians at the local, state, and national level have embraced his agenda to some degree via support for Medicaid cuts, large increases to defense spending, and/or a travel ban for Muslims.
Those far-right stances would be new to the governor’s mansion, as both Governors Sonny Perdue and Nathan Deal ran as more centrist, moderate Republicans. Both men were once members of the Democratic Party, which worked to their political advantage. Their mixed political heritage enhanced their ability to draw conservative Democrats, moderate Republicans, and independents into their camps. Victory in the Georgia’s governor’s race will require any candidate, Democrat or Republican, to replicate the bipartisan appeal demonstrated by Perdue and Deal.
At the recent state Republican convention, some clues were offered as to whether candidates will embrace moderate republicanism or Trump-brand “conservatism.” Lt. Governor Cagle, for example, suggested that most people find what Trump has done “refreshing,” despite not explicitly mentioning Trump at his campaign kickoff. Secretary Kemp, on the other hand, opted to directly invoke Trump with his “Georgia First” rhetoric at his kickoff rally. Senator Hill has so far been quiet on the Trump front, which is wise considering his state senate constituency broke for Hillary Clinton 55-40 in November. Of course, Senator Williams’ position couldn’t be clearer – he was the first state elected official to endorse Trump. His Trump endorsement earned derision and snickers back when a Trump presidency was little more than a distant and, depending on your political perspective, impossible dream or nightmare.
The first straw poll of the Republican field was also conducted at the convention, the results of which surprised many political observers:
Brian Kemp 30%
Hunter Hill 27%
Undecided 21%
Casey Cagle 11%
Michael Williams 10%
It is important to bear in mind that this poll was conducted with the most prominent Republican figures and activists in the state, so Cagle’s name recognition should help improve his standing when statewide polling begins.
Despite his poor showing, some party loyalists may still be unnerved by Williams’ revelation that unnamed Republican big wigs offered him a bribe to stay out of the race. As for Kemp and Hill, there should be no doubt that they left the convention with an extra spring in their step.
While the Democratic field is decidedly smaller for now, it is just as interesting. Both Abrams and Evans face a similar challenge as Republicans, given the brewing intra-party conflict of whether to align with conventional ideology of “moderate Democrats” or embrace policies that are perceived as more left-leaning. Bearing in mind that Clinton bested Sanders by over 40 points in last year’s presidential primary and given the desperate need to attract conservative-leaning independents, it seems more likely that both campaigns will ultimately opt for the former.
Despite early endorsements from Emily’s List and Democracy for America, Abrams has a record of compromise that could give some Democratic primary voters pause. Abrams main challenge will be to assure primary voters that her compromises have always been for the greater good. On the other hand, Evans greatest challenge at this stage of the campaign is more straightforward – she needs to make herself known to the millions of Georgia voters who may not recognize her name. She will need to work hard to raise her profile to match that of Abrams.
It’s worth noting that, should either of the Democratic candidates become governor, they would be making history. Evans and Abrams would both be the first female governor in Georgia’s history, and Abrams would be the first African-American female governor in American history. With the appetite for fresh faces and upending the political status quo in our electorate these days, voters may not be as inclined to put the 83rd white man in a row into the governor’s mansion.
There will be much more to discuss regarding national, state and local politics in the coming months. Check back here every Tuesday morning to get caught up with what’s going on with Georgia’s Red, Purple and Blue politics.
