Today is the day. Today, voters will go to the polls for the final time to decide who they want to represent them in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District, Democrat Jon Ossoff or Republican Karen Handel. Everyone has heard the endless ads, seen the yard signs across thousands of lawns both inside and outside of the district, and had their dinners interrupted by robocalls. No matter who wins tonight, every citizen in the 6th will no doubt be happy just to return to their regularly scheduled programming.
For millions of Democrats across the country, however, their mood tonight will depend on whether or not voters choose to put the first new Democrat in a federal office since President Trump won the election in November. Kansas and Montana both offered similar opportunities first, but the level of Republican support in those districts was simply too much to overcome for Democratic contenders, even in the Age of Trump and despite one of the Republican candidates committing assault the night prior to the election.
Of course, while those losses were disappointing to Democrats and those who want a stronger check on Trump’s agenda in Congress, there were silver linings. In Kansas, Trump carried the district where the special election took place by 27 points, but Republican candidate Ron Estates only carried it by 7 points, a 20-point swing. Similarly, in Montana, Trump won their sole House district by 21 points, and Republican candidate Greg Gianforte (the one who assaulted a reporter) won by 7 points, a 14-point swing. The Democratic candidates in those races fought hard, but neither race was considered particularly competitive and few resources were poured in from outside activists and the Democratic Party.
Georgia’s 6th District is a different story. Trump only won the district by a single point, which made it a very attractive target for those who sought to offer a rebuke to Trump and his new brand of conservatism. Polling has indicated that Ossoff and Handel are neck-and-neck, though the additional months of campaigning following the initial round of voting seem to have done more to help Ossoff than Handel.
However, even as Ossoff has slowly widened the gap between himself and Handel over the last few months, no one really knows what will happen tonight. What is clearer is what the reaction would be from each party and their supporters, depending on which candidate emerges victorious.
Should Ossoff seize the district, one which has been held by Republicans since 1979, then Democrats would celebrate and use this election as a template for all that follow in the next two years. They would be able to portray the Democratic candidates as the moderate adults in the room who will not kowtow to a blithering Commander in Chief, something which the Republicans have proven all too eager to do.
An Ossoff victory would also give Democrats a enormous boost of momentum, which will be key if they hope to draw the kind of enthusiasm and record-breaking financial support in future elections, special or otherwise. A win in the 6th would be a key talking point in courting new and repeat donors for the 2018 elections.
Republicans would paint an Ossoff victory as a big money anomaly. Trump himself would likely be on Twitter that very night with “LOSER Ossoff only won because Democrats spent millions to steal the election. SAD!” The win would be quickly dismissed and downplayed in a futile effort to mitigate Democratic enthusiasm.
A Handel victory, on the other hand, would be a real cause for celebration for Republicans. It would prove that, yes, you can link arms with two of the most reviled Republicans in the country (Trump and Representative Paul Ryan), and still not lose votes from the base, even the somewhat more moderate GOP voters of the 6th. If Republicans can hold onto a seat that has been made so competitive, they will no doubt feel much more comfortable going into 2018.
For Democrats, a loss would represent a small setback but Jon Ossoff’s campaign will positively change politics in Georgia forever. Of course, should Trump continue degrading the GOP brand at this rate, then Democrats, independents, and disaffected Republicans will likely be just as ready to turn out for the next election as this one, assuming the party can continue proffering candidates as strong as Ossoff.
Tharon Johnson is a consultant with Paramount Consulting Group and a Democrat strategist.
