The Tenth Congressional District is currently held by Rep. Paul Broun, who is leaving to run for Senate. With only off-the-cuff analysis as to which candidates would be considered serious contenders, we polled the entire ballot. But it is clear that there is a first tier, a second tier, and a couple of candidates who can be considered long shots to advance to a runoff.
Crosstabs posted at the bottom of the page as a .pdf.
The IVR phone interview of 545 likely Republican Primary voters is weighted for age and gender. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2%, with a confidence level of 95%.
The top line results:
Mike Collins 31.6%
Gary Gerrard 5.5%
Jody Hice 24.8%
Donna Sheldon 9.7%
Stephen Simpson 3.7%
Brian Slowinski 1.6%
Mitchell Swann 1.1%
Undecided 22.2%
The two likely runoff candidates both have a background in Republican politics, with Mike Collins being the son of former State Senator and later Congressman Mac Collins, and Jody Hice having run for Congress in 2010 against Rob Woodall in the Seventh District. Both have also shown a penchant for media-generating antics, with Mike Collins having produced early in this election cycle a spoof of the Jean-Claude VanDamme “Epic Split” TV ad, and Hice having garnered national attention in 2010 with billboards asking, “Had enough of Obama’s Change?” and replacing the ‘C’ with a Soviet-style hammer-and-sickle.
The appearance of Donna Sheldon well behind the leaders, and herself an accomplished public servant who spent more than ten years under the Gold Dome and left her position as House Majority Caucus Chair is somewhat puzzling. It might be worth noting that the Deep South states of South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana have sent only one Republican woman to the current caucus. Martha Roby represents Alabama’s Second District, which has a larger swath of Montgomery and its suburbs, as well as Dothan, giving it less of a rural character overall that the current GA-10.
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