Note: This post comes from Hastings Wyman at the Southern Political Report, an InsiderAdvantage owned site that covers politics all around the south. For more political news and insight, please visit SouthernPoliticalReport.com
The Republican Party has its sights on US Rep. John Barrow (D) in Georgia’s 12th District and in 2013 began spending money on TV ads attacking the fourth termer. In 2012, Barrow was reelected with 54% against a weak opponent, not a good sign for an incumbent. Barrow’s vulnerability stems from representing a district with a generally conservative electorate that votes Republican in presidential and other races.
Georgia’s 12th District is anchored by Augusta on its northeastern end, then drops down to include a wide swath of rural counties in South Georgia. In 2011, the district was redrawn by the legislature (R) to make it more conservative, mainly by removing Democratic Savannah. In 2012, Mitt Romney won the district with an 11-point margin over President Obama. The 12th District is 59% white, 35% black and 5% Hispanic. The primary is on May 20.
The leading GOP challenger is probably Rick Allen, a successful businessman (construction) who ran for the seat in 2012, losing the GOP runoff to state Rep. Lee Anderson by 49% to 51%. Had he won his party’s nomination, Allen may well have defeated Barrow in 2012. His strong race last time, in which he made it to the runoff, puts him in good stead this year, but it is not a slam-dunk for Allen. His support is centered in and around Augusta; a recent visitor to Augusta for the Masters’ golf tournament reported seeing a plethora of Allen signs. However, the rural counties, which account for about half the vote and went heavily for Anderson in 2012, are expected to favor Delvis Dutton, a rural lawmaker as was Anderson two years ago. Allen’s positions on issues are standard conservatism: Pro-gun, anti-abortion and same-sex marriage, for increased drilling for oil and gas, less government regulation. He has raised $576,000, with $158,000 on hand as of March 31.
Delvis Dutton was elected to the Georgia House of Representatives in 2010, representing three counties in rural South Georgia. He has a water-well drilling business, with customers in 15 of the 19 counties in the congressional district. A religious conservative, Dutton’s official House biography states that his “relationship with Jesus Christ and God creates the foundation for his approach to life and decision making.” He has received the endorsement of Georgia Right to Life. He has a youthful, photogenic appearance and began television ads on May 1. In the first quarter, he raised $115,000 and had $104,000 on hand. While Dutton’s support may mirror Anderson’s in the primary, he makes a better appearance than Anderson, and though not the favorite at this point, could end up with the nomination.
John Stone, a former congressional aide, sought the seat in 2008, but lost to Barrow by 34% to 66%. In February, he called for the nominee to be chosen in a caucus rather than a primary, so a divisive and costly runoff could be avoided; his idea was not adopted. Stone is unlikely to make the runoff, but he’s an experienced campaigner and could help force the GOP race into a runoff. Stone has raised $168,000, with $55,000 on hand.
Eugene Yu immigrated to the United States with his parents in 1972. A political newcomer, he is a successful businessman (refurbishing military equipment) from Augusta. In addition to serving in the US Army, Yu has been a fireman and deputy sheriff. He entered the US Senate race last year, but in February changed to the congressional contest. He has received $902,000 in campaign funds, with $236,000 on hand. While he has no political record, his substantial war chest could help him.
Also running is political unknown Diane Vann. She raised $11,000 and had only $125 on hand.
In his fourth term, US Rep. John Barrow (D-GA), 58, is the only remaining white Democratic representative from the Deep South. Despite an unfavorable redistricting, Barrow was reelected in 2012 over state Rep. Lee Anderson (R), a plain-spoken lawmaker from rural Grovetown in Columbia County. Barrow, a graduate of Harvard Law School, is a member of the moderate-to-conservative Blue Dog Democrats; various ratings report that he votes with the House Democratic leadership from 80% to 94% of the time. Barrow is a good fundraiser. He’s brought in $1,789,000 and has $1,442,000 on hand. He’s also campaigning very hard. And Barrow could be helped if there is a divisive Republican runoff. Democratic turnout may be sluggish in a non-presidential year; in any case, the presence of Michelle Nunn for US Senator and Jason Carter for governor at the top of the Democratic ticket this fall will not be a drag on Barrow.
At this point, the district leans, but only leans, Democratic.
