News that former Secretary of State and strong third place finisher in last week’s GOP primary, Karen Handel, would endorse Rep. Jack Kingston, spread through newsrooms early Tuesday night. Kingston continues to gather endorsements as longtime GOP officeholders and activists circle the wagon to prove that Republican blood is thicker than water. And with turnout in a July primary expected to be more like a large version of a state GOP convention, endorsements could deliver the critical margin in the runoff with businessman David Perdue.
And early polling by several sources suggest Kingston could be a heavy favorite to win the contest. InsiderAdvantage will not poll the race until it takes a bit more definition and the dust settles from the May 20th. But with Kingston now enjoying increasingly clear frontrunner status he can count on one thing—big time and nasty attack ads from the Perdue campaign and the outside organizations that favor him.
The Perdue camp has no choice but to go hard negative. Their primary campaign, which was quite frankly brilliant, won’t hold water in the runoff. Broad stroke “I’m an outsider” ads won’t motivate voters to head to the polls. And as conservative after conservative leader move towards Kingston, the only hope in stopping the slide and change in momentum will be some muddy, bloody, and darn near vicious TV commercials pointed at Kingston, painting him as a D.C. “insider” and a wild eyed spender.
That of course will invite a response from the Kingston campaign. They will likely fire back at Perdue with some of the same type attacks leveled at Mitt Romney in 2012. Every business misstep will be splashed on the airwaves by the Kingston crew and the outside interests supporting him.
But the issue that will most likely haunt Perdue and bolster Kingston will be a simple one. Kingston can boast of decades of working at virtually every level as a Republican in Georgia when being Republican was not cool. And while Perdue will pass the Republican “smell test” he likely will have difficulty matching Kingston’s Georgia Republican “sweat test.”
Mark my words, before this contest ends the Perdue team will roll out “Cousin Sonny” Perdue in a TV ad to rally his troops and remind them that Georgia’s first Republican governor wants them to vote for another Perdue. If Team Perdue doesn’t do it then they are nowhere near as smart as I think they are…and I think they are plenty smart.
But even if Sonny Perdue does appear in ads for David Perdue, it might not be enough to match Kingston. The Congressional runoffs don’t bode well for a big Perdue turnout and the Kingston “turnout tree” will have long and powerful branches.
Finally, while no one has really noted this, and yes there is plenty of crossover, this runoff is really a UGA vs. Ga Tech battle. Perdue has support and money from his Tech alums and Kingston has the same from the UGA crowd. If the Senate contest goes like the more recent history of the Tech-Georgia football games, then Perdue has his hands full. And if Perdue thinks Karen Handel’s lack of a college degree was a problem, he might now just go ahead and paint her in red and black with a big “G” on her jersey.
All of that said, anything can happen with this much time in between the vote. Low turnout races produce some pretty wacky results, so as for now the “ballgame” is nowhere near decided.
As for the race for governor, several recent polls confirm what our polling stated months ago. Nathan Deal is in an almost unique place for any sitting Governor of Georgia running for reelection. He is statistically tied with his Democratic opponent at the very start of their race. Even Roy Barnes led Sonny Perdue comfortably at this stage of their contest, with Perdue pulling almost even in the polls with Barnes (InsiderAdvantage, then for WXIA TV) in late October of 2002.
Let me make it clear one more time. Deal is in this pickle not because Jason Carter is Jimmy Carter’s grandson or because of the hazy alleged “ethics issues” that have constantly arisen in the media (and civil courts). No, it’s not that stuff that put Deal behind the eight ball. Instead it was one snowstorm that paralyzed the city and the clumsy performance of state employees under Deal in reacting to the storm. After the storm our polling showed deal as much twelve points behind Carter. It took an entire springtime for Deal to really recover.
Deal’s greatest problem can now be found in a highly ineffective TV ad campaign that focused on economic development during the primary. It gained him few additional votes and did nothing to create the sort of “warm and fuzzy” feeling the public should have for a governor. If the Deal campaign fails to endear themselves with the public in warmer ads on broader topics in the near future, they will have failed to help inoculate Deal from the guaranteed barrage of ethics and cronyism attacks that will be leveled his way.
As for Carter, he is as green as those throwback 1970s Jimmy Carter for Governor signs. His misguided vote on the gun bill and his toss-away on a potential Confederate vanity tag controversy are indications of severe rookie mistakes. He added to his rookie status by closing down his nomination celebration before the 10 and 11pm Atlanta newscasts, failing to recognize that the stations would have felt compelled to cover him.
Here, in my opinion, will be the telling early indication of whether Carter pulls off an upset or Deal pulls ahead and never looks back. The first campaign that will tell their leader that the “emperor has no clothes” will take the race.
For the Deal campaign that means no longer denying the reality that their candidate was severely damaged by the storm and is highly vulnerable to the endless rumble of alleged problems with “ethics.” And frankly, they must also recognize that all the warmth and help now being extended to Jack Kingston is a direct result of the candidate’s long effort to reach out to the depths of Georgia’s political community and rank-in-file GOP activists.
Deal is viewed as a governor to whom access and from whom results are tightly controlled by a handful. And that image will get an incumbent beat.
Carter’s camp must also recognize some tough realities. First, Jody (Powell) and Ham(Hamilton Jordan) are not around anymore and that means they must force their advisors to perform at the level of two true late-geniuses and do so quickly. Their candidate is prone to make costly statements and sounds too mellow when he speaks. Jason Carter had better toughen up and get wise or the Gainesville political boys will run right over him with a political steamroller.
The Senate contest is still forming, but the race for Governor of Georgia is well underway. My guess is that the first to draw blood in the gubernatorial contest might have an edge to the end.
