Note: The following post is from our sister organization, the Southern Political Report. For more news, polls, and opinions, on politics around the South, please visit us at SouthernPoliticalReport.com.
“It’s the economy, stupid,” was the by-word of Bill Clinton’s winning presidential campaign in 1992. While this is not a presidential year, the economy is still a – if not the – major concern of most voters.
The big news nationally and in the states is that the jobless rate appears to be declining across the board. In May of 2013, the US unemployment rate was 7.5%. This May, it was down to 6.3% and continued to decline in June.
Overall, as unemployment declines, the economic stewardship of the Obama Administration becomes less of a problem for the Democrats, and indeed, by November, if the trend continues, could well be a plus for the President’s party in congressional and US Senate races. That could spell good news for vulnerable Democratic US Sens. Mark Pryor (AR), Mary Landrieu (LA) and Kay Hagan (NC), as well as for Democratic US House candidates in competitive districts.
On the other hand, seven of the eight gubernatorial races in the South this year are held by Republicans. While the economy in any given state is due to any number of factors, many beyond its borders, voters usually give the governor blame or credit for the state of the economy in their state. In part this is due to the highly publicized efforts of governors, especially in the South, to attract new industries to the state, with frequent trade missions to Europe or Asia to drum up business that will make their state more prosperous.
In any case, whether valid or not, business conditions influence how voters treat their governor on Election Day. Some examples:
In Florida, the recent rebound of Gov. Rick Scott (R) over former Gov. Charlie Crist, his Democratic challenger, is probably due to the steady decline in the Sunshine State’s jobless rate. After trailing Crist in the winter and spring, in the two latest SurveyUSA polls, Scott led 43% to Crist’s 42% in June and a slightly higher 45% to 43% in July. Not coincidentally, Florida’s unemployment rate is down from 7.1% a year ago to 6.3% this May.
In South Carolina, Gov. Nikki Haley (R) is bound to get a boost from the major reduction in the jobless rate in the Palmetto State, which declined over the past year from 8.0% to 5.3%. The 2.7 point decrease was the highest in the South and is indicative of a significant economic turnaround in South Carolina on Haley’s watch. Moreover, the decline has more than kept up with national trends. Six months ago, South Carolina’s unemployment rate of 7.1% ranked the state 30th among the 50 states. The latest ranking, in May of this year, puts the Palmetto State at 18th.
In Arkansas, the jobless decline of 0.9 points over the past half-year may help the Democrats hold on to the governor’s mansion, currently held by Mike Beebe, or at least remove an arrow from the quiver of former US Rep. Asa Hutchinson (R), who is facing former US Rep. Mike Ross (D) in a competitive race.
In Alabama, where the unemployment rate of 6.8% remained flat for the past year, the only Southern state not to see its jobless rate decline, the economic news should be bad news for Gov. Robert Bentley (R), facing a respectable challenger in former US Rep. Parker Griffith (D). But Bentley has worked hard to put a good face on his economic policies, refusing to take his salary until the unemployment picture improves and making well-publicized, and successful, efforts to attract new employers to the state. Nevertheless, Bentley would have an easier time if the jobless rate had dropped a couple of points.
And in Georgia, the state’s sluggish recovery, ranking 43rd among the states in its jobless rate, doesn’t help Gov. Nathan Deal (R) in his competitive battle with Jason Carter (D).
Unemployment rate in Southern states
May 2014 May 2013 Change Natl/Rank
OK 4.6 5.0 – 0.4 10th
LA 4.9 6.8 – 1.9 14th
TX 5.1 6.5 – 1.4 16th
VA 5.1 5.3 – 0.2 16th
SC 5.3 8.0 – 2.7 18th
FL 6.3 7.1 – 0.8 29th
AR 6.4 7.3 – 0.9 31st
NC 6.4 8.8 – 2.6 31st
TN 6.4 8.3 – 1.5 31st
AL 6.8 6.8 0.0 38th
GA 7.2 8.3 – 1.1 43rd
KY 7.7 8.1 – 0.4 48th
MS 7.7 9.1 – 1.4 48th
US/May 2014: 6.3
US May 2013: 7.5
