Five-term Democratic incumbent U.S. Rep. John Barrow, a longtime moving target of Republicans, faces an all-out GOP challenge in Georgia’s 12th district.
Barrow, the last white Democratic congressman from the deep South, is running against Augusta businessman Rick Allen in the predominantly GOP district. The battle shapes up as Georgia’s only seriously contested congressional race this year.
While Allen appears one of the most formidable candidates Barrow has faced, the race is rated even by national political observers, Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz said.
“I wouldn’t rule out that he won’t survive,” Abramowitz said. “I predict a close race that could go any way.” The Cook Political Report on Aug. 1 rated the district as “leaning Democrat.”
Republicans have redrawn the district several times, forcing Barrow to move from his hometown of Athens to Savannah and now Augusta. Despite the address changes and majority Republican electorates, the attorney has managed to hang on in the district, which now slices from Augusta down into central Georgia, including the cities of Dublin, Douglas and Statesboro.
National Republicans “look at the district as one they should win,” Abramowitz said. The National Republican Congressional Committee is targeting the race as crucial, with symbolic value more at stake than practical political considerations.
Republicans are expected to comfortably keep control of the House no matter what happens in the Georgia contest. While Democrats fiercely desire to keep the seat, the election probably won’t play a decisive role nationally, with the party unlikely to pick up the 17 seats needed to regain House control, Abramowitz said. An incumbent president’s party generally loses seats in midterm elections, he pointed out.
In 2012, Barrow beat GOP challenger Lee Anderson although the district voted overwhelming for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney. Abramowitz said Barrow was one of only nine Democrats and 16 Republicans nationally who won in districts in which voters supported the other party’s presidential candidate.
Allen, who drew upon his own wealth in winning the GOP nomination without an expensive runoff, looks to attack Barrow aggressively, with outside funding help. So far, one debate has been scheduled, Oct. 16 in Statesboro.
Barrow remains popular by providing old-fashioned constituent service, Abramowitz said. “The key is that he really works hard,” he said. “He goes back to the district, stays in touch with folks.” While he has supported President Obama on key votes, the conservative-leaning Barrow has a moderate record.
Georgia’s generally lackluster congressional races mirror a national trend. Unlike the hotly contested U.S. Senate races around the country, House elections are stable this year.
“Looking around, there’s only going to be 20 or 30 races that are going to be competitive in the whole country,” Abramowitz said. “There are very, very few in either party really at risk.”
Georgia stiil will have significant turnover, of personalities rather than party.
GOP incumbents Paul Broun in the 10th District and Phil Gingrey in the 11th failed in bids for the U.S. Senate nomination. In the 1st District, longtime U.S. Rep. Jack Kingston will be gone after losing the U.S. Senate runoff to David Perdue.
Republican Barry Loudermilk will replace Gingrey in the 11th District, having no Democratic opposition after beating former U.S. Rep. Bob Barr in a runoff.
Republicans Jody B. Hice in the 10th and E.L. “Buddy” Carter in the 1st are strongly favored to win over Democratic opponents. Hice, who received 26,975 votes in beating Mike Collins in a runoff, holds a strong fund-raising lead over Athens attorney Ken Dious, while Carter gained 22,871 voters in the Republican runoff in which 42,503 voters participated. Meanwhile, Carter’s opponent, Brian Corwin Reese, drew 6,511 votes in a Democratic runoff.
Republican incumbents Lynn Westmoreland in the 3rd district, Austin Scott in the 8th and Tom Graves in the 14th have no opposition. On the Democratic side, Hank Johnson in the 4th District, John Lewis in the 5th and David Scott in the 13th are unopposed.
Other incumbents face opposition, but no Paul Cantor-type upset is expected. Democratic incumbent Sanford Bishop Jr. is strongly favored in the 2nd district over challenger Greg Duke.
Republican incumbent Tom Price commands over Democrat Robert Monitgel in the 6th district, while GOP Rep. Rob Woodall holds the advantage over Thomas Wight in the 7th. In the 9th, GOP incumbent Doug Collins is expected to regain his seat against David Vogel.
