Presidential polling has been brisk this year, with voters and the media hanging on the latest Biden-Trump poll that come out every few days in this or that battleground state. Senate polling has is also getting a lot of attention as Democrats only need to pick up a handful of seats to take control of that chamber.
Lesser followed – and much lesser polled – are House races, though there are at least two in Georgia that will be tight this year. A lack of polls – and next to zero polls for races on the state level – means that it can be hard to know exactly what is coming in November for races further down the ballot.
Rep. Lucy McBath (D-GA 6) is one of 31 Democrats who represent districts that Donald Trump won in 2016, when he beat Hillary Clinton in the 6th District 48.3%-46.8% – a win of 1.5%. Former Rep. Karen Handel is challenging McBath in a rematch from 2018 when McBath won by 1%, 50.5%-49.5%. The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia – home of the famed “Crystal Ball” from Larry Sabato – currently pegs the race as “Leans Democratic,” with Real Clear Politics ranking it a Toss Up. Polls of the race this year have been mixed, with each candidate leading in different polls.
Just next door in the 7th district lies Georgia’s other competitive race, where Democrat Carolyn Bordeaux is running again after losing to retiring incumbent Rob Woodall by just .2% – 433 votes – in 2018. Political newcomer Republican Rich McCormick is looking to replace Woodall, touting his service as a Marine and ER doctor. Polling has been light in the district, with just one on the FiveThirtyEight list (and from back in June), that showed Bordeaux up by 3% over McCormick. The Center for Politics rates it as Leans Democratic, as does the Cook Political Report.
For Georgia politicos, some of the really interesting races to watch will be a little closer to home. With a big blue wave this year, there is a slim chance Democrats could regain control of the House for the first time in nearly two decades.
Conor Sen, an Atlanta resident and Bloomberg opinion writer, noted that “Every state has that one race this year that would mean a tsunami. In Georgia it might be the Milton state House race between Republican Speaker Pro Tem Jan Jones and Anthia Owens Carter.”
The odds of Jones going down are low, as the political pro is unlikely to take anything for granted, but the even the possibility could spell a difficult election for Republican House members in metro Atlanta. Rep. Brett Harrell (R-106 Snellville) is in a particularly difficult race. Hillary Clinton won Gwinnett County in 2016 but Harrell has managed to hold on – as he ran unopposed in 2016 and 2018. Continued demographic changes and growth in Gwinnett mean that Harrell may face an uphill battle this year. Some analysts are rating the race as as Safe D.
Rep. Chuck Efstration (R-104 Dacula) is in another Gwinnett County district and did face a challenger in 2018, beating Andrea Stephenson by about 6%. Presidential year turnout and a well-funded challenger in the recently Barack Obama-endosed Nikita Hemingway will likely keep this race tighter this time around.
There are several other metro Atlanta House races – and some around the state like Rep. Houston Gaines (R-117 Athens) – that could tilt to Democrats. They need at least 16 new seats to take back the chamber. With 104 Republicans currently holding office, that’s not as big a number as it sounds.
