Georgia is finishing its first week of early voting with heavy numbers. Log on to the website http://georgiavotes.com/ to view early statewide vote totals. Particular attention should be given to the “rural” vote (counties under 50,000 population) to ascertain if Republican President Donald Trump ultimately wins the Nov. 3 election over Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden.
At this point in the 2020 general election, 1,962,503 people have applied to vote by mail. At this point in the 2016 general election, that number was 462,258 according to georgiavotes.com— and that means the turnout for this year is 325 percent higher.
Basically, the election boils down to metro Atlanta versus the rest of the Georgia (metro Atlanta is now 29 counties, from the Alabama line to Lake Oconee on I-20 and from Dawsonville in the north to Warm Springs in the south). Biden is going to carry metro Atlanta (not every county in metro Atlanta, but the region overall), and Trump overall is going to win the 130 counties (combined) outside metro Atlanta.
Listed below is comparison of voting in past statewide races between metro Atlanta and the rest of the state:
2016 PRESIDENT
Metro Atlanta—Clinton 52%, Trump 44% Rest of State—-Trump 61%, Clinton 37%
2018 GOVERNOR
Metro Atlanta—Abrams 56%, Kemp 42% Rest of State—Kemp 61%, Abrams 38%
Metro Atlanta accounts for about 59% of the state’s total votes. Democrats have a solid base in Clayton, DeKalb and Fulton Counties, and with the Democratic trend now beyond I-285, Cobb and Gwinnett are expected to back Biden and both backed Clinton in 2016. The largest counties solidly backing Republicans in metro Atlanta are Cherokee and Forsyth.
Or another way of looking at the election is urban-rural overall. In 2018, Abrams won 8 of the state’s 10 largest voting counties, resulting in a 522,000-vote lead over Kemp when combining the 10 counties. Abrams got 63 percent overall (average) in the 10 largest counties. Almost half of the state’s votes come from the 10 largest counties (Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton and Gwinnett combined account for about a third of the state’s total votes). Kemp won the rest of Georgia (other 149 counties combined) by about 577,000 votes— overall beating Abrams by about 55,000 votes, or 1.4 percentage points. Kemp got 64 percent outside the 10 largest counties.
In 2018, Republicans got between 49 and 53 percent in the 10 statewide partisan races and Democrats got between 47 and 49 percent in the statewide races. Combining all 10 statewide races on the November 2018 ballot, Republicans had only a 51-48 percent advantage over the Democrats. Metro Atlanta backed every Democrat running statewide in 2018 and the rest of the state backed every Republican running statewide that year.
Among the state’s 14 congressional districts, Trump will likely run best in the 9th and 14th Districts (represented by Doug Collins and Tom Graves respectively). Trump got 78 percent in the former and 75 percent in the latter. Biden will run the best in the majority-black 4th (hank Johnson), 5th (old John Lewis seat) and 13th (Rep. David Scott) districts of metro Atlanta. Last time Clinton got 75 percent in the 4th District, 85 percent in the 5th District and 71 percent in the 13th District. The Trump-Biden percentages will be close in CD 6 (where Karen Handel is seeking a comeback) and CD 7 (Rep. Rob Woodall’s seat). Both districts backed Trump narrowly in 2016 and Abrams narrowly in 2018, so they could be considered swing districts.
Thus, the “outside metro Atlanta” vote is crucial for a Trump victory– even though a vast majority of the state’s votes are in the more populated counties. It is also crucial for GOP U.S. Sen. David Perdue to win re-election without a run-off. There will no doubt be a runoff in the second 21-candidate U.S. Senate contest.
