If you log on to the georgiavotes.com website you’ll see that— so far– the total black early voting turnout (a combination of early voting and absentees received so far) is 28 percent while the white turnout is 57.1, Asian and Hispanic each 2.4 percent and “other” 10.1 percent for a total of just under 3.2 million votes. Democrat strategists agree the black vote (mostly reliably Democratic) needs to turn out far more by Nov. 3rd if presidential candidate Joe Biden is to win Georgia.
Keep in mind that in 2018, the overall black percentage among the early voting was 30.3 percent, white was 57.1. And among everyone who voted in 2018, whether election day or earlier, the count was 28.9 percent black and 59.0 percent white.) It is hard to imagine that in the days of early voting remaining, the black percentage will jump to 30. Similarly, under the assumption that a majority of Georgians who plan to vote this year have already done so, the overall black percentage of remaining people yet to vote would have to be disproportionately high, like 32 or more. Pundits are now wondering if that will happen.
Blacks were 27.6 percent of the total turnout in Georgia in the 2016 presidential election. The highest black percentage of the voting electorate in Georgia (in elections going back to 1996, based on Secretary of State data) was in 2008 and 2012 with Barack Obama on the ballot. Blacks were 30.1 percent of the total electorate in the 2008 presidential election in Georgia and a similar 29.9 percent in 2012. Black turnout is still running disproportionately low in DeKalb and Fulton counties compared to the percentage of registered voters who are black in each county. Furthermore, in Fulton County more whites than blacks have voted so far—even though black registered voters outnumber white ones. And while obviously there will be a significant amount of whites voting for Biden, North Fulton remains a strong Republican enclave and is turning out heavily. Turnout has also been running particularly high in conservative Forsyth County. Total turnout there is already approaching the total turnout (election day and early voting) there in 2016.
The Buckhead section of Atlanta is registering a high turnout in House District 54 (held two years ago by then-GOP Rep. Beth Beskin until ousted by a liberal Democrat). Almost 90 percent of the total 2016 turnout has already voted– though that may not be a good sign for Republicans as Democrat presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won the district by 14 points and 2018 Democrat gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams won it by 15 in 2018. GOP Attorney Lyndsey Rudder is running for that House District 54 seat and she says her polling, unsurprisingly, has President Donald Trump losing the district as well as GOP U.S. Sen. David Perdue. So Rudder is focusing on votes from “soft” Democrats upset by Biden’s perceived lack of support for law enforcement.
Turnout is also running high in the neighboring district of state Rep. Deborah Silcox, R-Sandy Springs, who is running against a very liberal Democrat. And outside metro Atlanta, the mountain district of Republican Matt Gurtler (Rabun, Towns, Union and some of White County) is seeing extremely high turnout for Trump. The president should easily clear 75 percent, maybe even 80 percent.
All in all, as Thursday dawns, Republicans appear to be in good shape in terms of statewide turnout. So far.
