Georgia’s total early vote count as of yesterday– both early in-person and absentees— is a whopping 2,337,477. At this point in the 2020 November 3rd general election, that number was 3,028,676. (By the way, total early votes in the general election were 3,903,356.)
The voting breakdown as of yesterday were 802,290 mail ballots and 1,535,187 in-person early votes.
What does this mean? Consider that President Donald Trump won handily outside of the metro Atlanta— leading Democrat Joe Biden by a 60-39 percent margin. Trump ended up winning 129 counties to just 30 for Biden. However, Biden won 8 of the 12 largest voting counties, and those 12 counties accounted for 52 percent of the state’s total votes this year.
Basically, the top 12 voting counties outvoted the other 147 counties.
That is a sign the GOP cannot win statewide in Georgia in future years with a “rural-based” strategy. It is also why the two GOP U.S. senators in the January 5th runoffs are in a very tight race with their Democrat opponents.
While Biden barely won, it is important to note that he did not tally a majority of Georgia’s votes. He received 49.5 percent to 49.3 percent for Trump. Republicans have won every statewide general election runoff since 1992, when Republican Paul Coverdell defeated Democrat Wyche Fowler by less than a point and a half. In the most recent 2018 runoffs– for Secretary of State and Public Service Commission— the GOP won both but by close margins, 52-48 percent. It was the usual pattern. The Democratic candidates won metro Atlanta, but the Republican ones had bigger margins in the rest of Georgia.
As we look toward January 5th it may be worth noting that GOP Sen. David Perdue ran ahead of Democrat Jon Ossoff (unlike Trump, who did not run ahead of Biden). That may give Perdue an edge. In any event, most analysts underscore that this is a “turnout” election. In other words, whichever candidate turns out more of the partisan base will win. And that’s why the president is traveling to Georgia— outside metro Atlanta— for two rallies to motivate the GOP/independent vote.
There are also no Libertarian Party candidates involved, unlike on Nov. 3. It is estimated they drained away untold thousands of Republican votes. This time, well known libertarian GOP U.S. Sen. Rand Paul is urging Georgia Libertarians to vote for Perdue and GOP U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler.
