Four counties – Richmond, Columbia, Bulloch, and Laurens – accounted for 65 percent of the votes cast in the 2012 race for Georgia’s 12th congressional district. Of those 168,800 ballots, Democratic Rep. John Barrow claimed 56 percent of them, a figure that accounted for 68 percent of the total tally he accrued across the rural, sprawling district. He carried two of the four (Richmond, Bulloch) and came just short of winning Laurens. The district’s remaining fifteen counties gave former state Rep. Lee Anderson a razor-thin margin. He won 50.7 percent of those 90,321 votes to Barrow’s 49.3, well short of what was needed to offset the deficit in the heavier populated areas.
It totaled to Barrow’s re-election by a roughly 54-46 percent margin, even as Mitt Romney easily vanquished President Obama in the conservative-leaning district by double-digits. This is not, 2012, though. And Barrow’s Republican opposition this time, Rick Allen, is universally agreed upon to be a better candidate than Anderson, remembered nationally as one of the worst of that cycle.
Given the district’s red tinge, too, the path forward for unseating the last white Democrat in the Deep South appears easy enough. Pluck away Bulloch County, which Barrow only narrowly won, hold him under 70 percent of the vote in Columbia, expand the margin in Laurens, and build upon Anderson’s too slim majority in the less populated areas.
Point being, the paths to victory for a Republican in this district are numerous, not so much for Democrats. Even the most optimistic would have to concede that 54 percent figure is Barrow’s support ceiling on his best day. Those are words, though. Actually unseating Barrow is another animal entirely. That’s the dynamic heading into October for what’s shaped up to be another bruising and expensive battle in the 12th district.
Until last week, though, it didn’t seem to have registered much on the radar outside the district’s confines. Thanks in part to hotly contested Peach State races for governor and Senate, as well as his reputation as a proven survivor, Barrow’s bid to defy political reality again is largely the sleeper race of 2014. As Election Day draws near, though, it’s coming more into the spotlight. We’ve now seen the first polling on the race released to the public, an internal from Allen’s campaign showing him trailing 44-42 percent, constituting easy striking distance. More importantly, though, the GOPer led by 4 points, 46-42, among voters who were familiar with both Barrow and himself.
Granted, it’s an internal poll. It also comes at a time when many national prognosticators feel that Barrow, while not out of the woods by a longshot, is safer than many other embattled incumbents. Only The Washington Post gives Allen the nod in its forecasting models.
For weeks, though, the ads from Barrow, Allen, and outside groups on both sides have been flying. The National Republican Congressional Committee announced an initial ad buy of $800,000 for the district, but that has since expanded to over seven figures. It’s all going towards tying Barrow to President Obama and national Democratic forces. Their counterparts have been churning out the hits on Allen, too. Republicans involved with the race acknowledge the tall order that is defeating Barrow, but appear increasingly bullish.
“John Barrow is in the fight of his life. This is the first time Barrow has had to run in this redrawn district in a midterm election where his own party and President Obama are polling at an all-time low,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokeswoman Katie Prill said. “Barrow has been able to hang on this far because he represents himself as a moderate politician but Barrow confirmed that he voted with President Obama and Nancy Pelosi 85% of the time. That’s not going to sit well with Georgia families.”
On the other hand, a spokesman for Barrow recently went on the record saying “[w]e feel better than we’ve ever felt,” though declined to rebut the results of Allen’s internal, which have been utilized in recent days for online fundraising appeals. And earlier in the year, unaffiliated GOPers gave the odds of victory “maybe a 25 percent shot.” The musing did, however, carry with it another caveat, that “all it takes is a wave election” to put the Blue Dog on the ropes.
That was before Allen surprised many by crushing a crowded primary field without the need for a runoff. It’s given him added time to replenish campaign coffers to face Barrow, himself a prolific fundraiser. Anderson was afforded no such time two years ago. And what turned into a potent attack for Barrow – Anderson’s refusal to debate – went out the window when the candidates met for the first time on Saturday. Though even that carried a heated back and forth on location, and allegations that Allen withdrew from the debate, in the days leading up to it.
Wave year or not, almost everyone agrees that we’re in for a longer election night than two years ago, due in part to Obama’s unpopularity, a stronger opponent, Barrow’s first midterm in the district, and the numerical reality that the district tilts Republican. Working in the Blue Dog’s favor – a fundraising advantage, incumbency, name id, and having defied the odds many times before. It makes for a five week stretch sure to be barn-burning, though quite possibly more under the radar in a changing Georgia.
Brandon Howell is a conservative communication strategist and writer.
