Georgia is into its second week of early primary voting with heavier numbers than at this time in 2018. Log on to the non-partisan website http://georgiavotes.com/ to view early statewide vote totals. So far through May 10, 254,556 people have voted. At this point in the 2018 primary, that number was 78,139. Total turnout for the 2022 primary is 226% higher.
As for the partisan ballot breakdown: 106,188 (41.7%) people have voted with Democratic ballots and 146,425 (57.5%) people have voted with Republican ballots. 1,943 (0.8%) people have voted with Non-Partisan ballots.
Some analysts think non-typical voters are leading this tremendous growth that the polls may be missing. For example, 46.5% of Republicans who have cast ballots did not vote in the 2018 gubernatorial primary.
An internal memo from the David Perdue gubernatorial campaign says, “Over 21,000 of these voters have voted every time Trump was on the ballot in both Trump Generals and Trump Presidential Preference Primaries, but crucially not in the 2018 Brian Kemp Primary. These MAGA voters are being driven by President Trump’s support for us. Another 21,000 of these voters have not voted in a single primary in the last four election cycles and would not typically be picked up in mainstream polling models. Over 3,000 Republican voters who voted in the 2020 General, but not in the Senate Runoff have cast ballots. Previous surveys indicate that 80% of these voters didn’t turn back out in January 2021 due to Kemp and (Secretary of State Brad) Raffensperger’s failure to assure voters that they would secure Georgians’ votes from voter fraud.”
The Perdue memo also says pro-Trump mainly rural areas are outpacing “squishy moderate areas.”
Staffers for Perdue’s GOP opponent Kemp see it differently. They point out that higher turnout areas also include districts that the governor dominated in 2018, including his home territory in northeast Georgia. Also, the University of Georgia’s Charles Bullock and several other prognosticators point out that the early-voting surge could be a symptom of a broader GOP migration away from mail-in voting.
Kemp is also heavily outspending Perdue with TV advertising. His campaign dismissed talk of a Perdue surge and mocked the $500,000 check he stroked for his bid. “The guy supposedly worth $50 million has only loaned his campaign $500,000, hasn’t spent any of it, and doesn’t have any major advertising the last two weeks of the primary,” said Kemp spokesman Cody Hall.
By the way, a new law stipulates that this Friday, May 13, is the last day to submit your application to receive an absentee ballot for the May 24 primary.
