A week before Georgia’s own party primaries, five states – Kentucky, North Carolina, Idaho, Pennsylvania, and Oregon – held their own primary elections Tuesday. With some similar forces at play, particularly on the GOP side where the influence of former President Donald Trump has played a key role, what can Georgia candidates take away from the day’s results?
The most watched state Tuesday was Pennsylvania, where Trump-backed candidates running for the Republican nomination for both U.S. Senate and governor squared off against more “establishment” options.
Dr. Mehmet Oz, a celebrity surgeon and reality tv star, gained steam in the polls down the stretch of his Republican primary campaign thanks to Trump’s endorsement in the contest to replace retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey. However a late surge from far-right candidate Kathy Barnette stole some of his thunder – her push came up short Tuesday but she still managed 23 percent of the vote thanks to fiery campaign rhetoric that painted both Oz and Dave McCormick as RINO’s.
Oz and McCormick remained deadlocked as the clocked turned to midnight with Oz clinging to a lead of less than 1,000 votes, an amount which would trigger a recount. So stay tuned there.
In the Pennsylvania governor’s race Doug Mastriano, a staunch Trump supporter and key ally in the fallout of the 2020 election, cruised to an easy primary victory over former U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta. Trump backed Mastriano, a former state legislator, late in his primary campaign.
Down in North Carolina, Trump’s choice for U.S. Senate, Rep. Ted Budd, won his party’s nomination to replace retiring GOP Sen. Richard Burr. He easily emerged from a relatively deep field that included former Gov. Pat McCrory, proving Trump still has some serious muscle in a state he narrowly carried in 2020. Budd was the first non-incumbent who Trump endorsed in the 2022 cycle.
Budd will face Cheri Beasley, a well-funded Democrat who was the first Black woman to serve as chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court.
In NC’s 11th Congressional District, Trump threw his endorsement behind controversial Rep. Madison Cawthorn as he sought re-election in his newly drawn seat. But the former President’s support was not enough to overcome the series of scandals that have unfolded over recent months, as Cawthorn was narrowly defeated by state Sen. Chuck Edwards. Edwards had secured the endorsements of most members of the state legislature in the district, as well as some high profile national supporters such as North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis.
So a solid night overall for Trump and his candidates – but what does that mean for next week in Georgia?
Polls have shown Gov. Brian Kemp maintaining his lead in his race against Trump-backed former Sen. David Perdue. The Perdue camp has continued to point to a late “Trump surge” that could drive Kemp down below the 50%+1 margin he needs to advance to the general election. If that late surge does indeed keep Perdue alive, it could be a whole new game in one of Georgia’s famously unpredictable runoffs.
The Trump wins are even better news for candidates down the ballot, such as state Sen. Burt Jones, R-Jackson, who is locked into a tough fight with fellow Sen. Butch Miller, R-Gainesville. If he gets the Trump-bump we saw in some races Tuesday, he could possibly avoid a runoff himself in what has been a hotly contested primary. Similarly it’s good news for other Trump-backed candidates, including Patrick Witt, challenging incumbent John King for Georgia Insurance and Safety Fire Commissioner, and Jake Evans, running for the Republican nomination in Georgia’s crowded 6th Congressional District. In CD-10 Vernon Jones will be hoping for a boost to get him into a runoff against frontrunner Mike Collins, as will John Gordon for attorney general challenging incumbent Chris Carr, and Jody Hice challenging Brad Raffensperger.
Each of those races of course have their own dynamics and circumstances at play, but a Trump-bump, even just a marginal one, could wind up having major consequences in a close race. We saw that play out to different degrees last night across the nation, and now all eyes turn to the Peach State.
