Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s likely presidential campaign could split Southern GOP allegiances in 2016.
Bush’s office last week announced his resignation from corporate and nonprofit boards, laying another plank for a presidential run. If Bush enters the White House race, Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp’s efforts to create a Southern superprimary on March 1, 2016, will gain more national attention.
Kemp believes the one-day Southern primary will increase the region’s clout in determining the party’s nominee. But a Bush candidacy will lower the odds of the region uniting behind one candidate. As 2016 political battle lines take shape in 2015, the South stands as the bellwether for national party divisions. State loyalties will be magnified if the regionwide primary takes shape.
Bush, the son of former President George H.W. Bush and brother of former President George W. Bush, is seen as the favorite of the more mainstream GOP establishment. His support in Florida and family background in Texas will make him formidable in the region.
But the South won’t give its full support to Bush, who supports the national Common Core education standards and has taken a moderate position on issues such as immigration. Bush’s strong support in Florida will be weakened if more conservative U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio runs.
The party’s strong Tea Party wing in the region will support more conservative Southerners like Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Gov. Rick Perry, weakening the region’s chances of uniting behind one candidate. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, with his Libertarian outlook, also looks formidable in the region.
Bush looks to have the strongest appeal in suburban states like Tennessee, North Carolina and Georgia. But those states also have significant Tea Party voters who will favor Cruz or Perry. A Southern primary will increase the clout of smaller, more rural states like Mississippi, Arkansas, South Carolina and Alabama, likely to strongly back Cruz or Perry.
Kemp so far has drawn preliminary support from Mississippi, Arkansas and Alabama to move their elections to March 1, 1916, and is asking Louisiana and South Carolina for similar commitments, according to the AJC. Tennessee, Florida and Texas already have their primaries scheduled for March 1, 2016.
Louisiana, where conservative Gov. Bobby Jindal is considering his own presidential run, has traditionally held its elections on Saturdays, making doubtful a switch from its scheduled election on March 5, 2016. If Jindal doesn’t run, Louisiana, Texas’ neighboring state, would strongly support Cruz, Perry or Paul over Bush.
The strong slate of Southern candidates will make it more difficult for Northerners like New Jersey’s Chris Christie, Wisconsin’s Scott Walker and Ohio’s John Kasich to gain momentum in the region, raising the possibility that no candidate will receive the number of delegates necessary for the nomination before the party’s convention.
In looking at the Democratic side, the Associated Press’ Ken Thomas started the new year with a provocative article exploring the possibility that front-runner Hillary Clinton might decide not to enter the race, concluding that “political chaos” would result.
Clinton has dominated fund-raising and endorsements, discouraging other potential candidates. But even long-shots might consider entering if Clinton stays out, the article says. The Southern regional primary could strongly boost one of those candidates’ campaigns.
With her Arkansas roots and strong name recognition, Clinton would have a good chance of winning key states such as Florida and Virginia and possibly Georgia, Tennessee and North Carolina. But if she doesn’t run, the Republicans look to sweep the South’s electoral votes.
Outside of Clinton, the most well-known possible Democratic candidate cited by Thomas is Vice President Joe Biden. He would benefit the most from a Clinton absence, but his liberal policies are unpopular in the South, and age would be a hurdle for the 72-year-old. Among other candidates Thomas cites, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders with their liberal beliefs would not play well in Dixie.
Those with Southern ties include Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, tarnished by declining poll ratings in his state; former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb, whose bipartisan record and a military background boost his Southern appeal; and Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, seen as a rising star although not well known outside of his native state.
Northerners on Thomas list, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, can probably forget about the South.
